Broncos vs Raiders

Bo Nix leads a 10-2 Broncos team riding an eight-game winning streak into Allegiant Stadium against a Raiders squad that has dropped six straight and sits at 2-10 with one of the league’s worst offenses and already fading postseason hopes. Denver’s defense has quietly become an elite unit, allowing just 18.4 points per game while piling up an NFL-best 40 sacks, a bad matchup for Geno Smith behind a Raiders line that just surrendered 192 rushing yards and consistent pressure in a 31-14 loss to the Chargers. Las Vegas hasn’t topped 75 rushing yards in four straight games, putting even more on Smith and standout tight end Brock Bowers, who now faces another dose of Pat Surtain II after struggling in previous meetings, while Nix brings a clean track record against the Raiders (five touchdowns, two interceptions in three career games) and has Courtland Sutton and Tory Franklin to attack a defense ranked near the bottom in both scoring and yardage. Denver has real incentive with the AFC’s top seed in play, while the Raiders’ season has shifted toward evaluation and draft positioning, and although -417 is steep, the talent gap, form, and injury picture — including Maxx Crosby’s knee issue and multiple banged-up Raiders pass-catchers versus a relatively healthier Broncos core — all point strongly toward another Denver win. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:17am

Under the Allegiant Stadium dome, with no weather variance to boost scoring, this profiles as another grind similar to Denver’s 10-7 win over Las Vegas in Week 10, especially with the Broncos’ defense giving up just 18.4 points per game and ranking top-five in both yardage and scoring allowed while the Raiders sit 31st in points and 30th in total offense. Denver’s offense is efficient but not a track meet — 284 points in 12 games (about 24 per outing) — and Sean Payton has leaned into a balanced, methodical approach with J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey complementing Nix rather than forcing shootouts, which naturally bleeds clock against a Raiders team that wants to get rookie back Ashton Jeanty going but hasn’t found any consistent ground game. Las Vegas has failed to clear 20 points in most of its recent losses, and even Bowers’ surge and Tre Tucker’s breakout are now funneled into a brutal matchup against Surtain and a pass rush that already stifled this offense once and has motivated playoff stakes to keep the foot down defensively. With the Raiders reeling on a long losing streak, Denver content to play from ahead, and multiple key Vegas weapons and defenders banged up, a script in the neighborhood of 24-13 or 23-14 feels more likely than a shootout, keeping the total under 40.5 despite the risk of late garbage-time points. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:17am

Given Denver’s +66 point differential through 12 games and an eight-game winning streak built mostly on multi-score margins, laying -7.5 against a Raiders team that is 1-9 in its last 10 and frequently losing by double digits is justified, especially when you factor in injuries and matchup edges in key spots. The Broncos’ pass rush and disciplined coverage — highlighted by Surtain’s history of suppressing Bowers and a front that leads the league in sacks — match up against an offense that just mustered 156 total yards versus the Chargers and has been repeatedly overwhelmed on third down, while Las Vegas could be without star edge Maxx Crosby or see him limited, undercutting one of the few matchup advantages the Raiders normally enjoy. With Bo Nix historically productive against this opponent, Sutton winning outside, and Denver’s rushing attack facing a defense gashed on the ground last week, a 10- to 14-point victory is well within range, particularly with the Broncos chasing playoff seeding and the Raiders already reduced to spoiler status. The backdoor is a concern with Geno Smith and Bowers capable of a late score, and Denver’s offense is more efficient than explosive, which keeps this at a B rather than a higher grade, but the underlying form, health, and motivation all lean toward the Broncos covering the 7.5. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 12:17am