Nuggets vs Pacers

Denver’s Nikola Jokic leads a 14-6 Nuggets team that comes in on a one-game skid but with three straight road wins, while Indiana has dropped four of its last six and just saw a brief two-game surge halted by Cleveland. The Pacers remain without Tyrese Haliburton for the season and are still missing multiple rotation pieces like Aaron Nesmith and Obi Toppin, whereas Denver’s injury report is heavy but still likely features a probable Jokic alongside a questionable Jamal Murray and several sidelined role players. Given how Jokic dismantled Indiana last season with massive scoring, rebounding, and playmaking lines, and with Pascal Siakam now forced into an almost do-everything role against a deeper Denver frontcourt, the talent gap still strongly favors the visitors despite their own dings. I’m backing the Denver Nuggets on the moneyline at -320, with an A- grade that reflects high win likelihood but only moderate value at this price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:40am

Pascal Siakam and the Pacers have recently sparked their offense with back-to-back 119- and 103-point outings during their brief uptick, even as they slipped again versus Cleveland, while Denver’s last six have featured multiple games in the 120–130 range on both sides of the scoreboard. With Indiana still extremely short-handed in the backcourt and on the wing and Denver missing key defenders like Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun (and possibly Murray), both teams lean more on offense than on point-of-attack resistance, which has already produced blowups for and against each side in the past two weeks. Jokic’s history of piling up points and assists against Indiana and Siakam’s steady production versus Denver suggest the primary engines can keep this pace-driven matchup humming toward a high total, so I’ll lean to Over 235 at -110 with a B grade, acknowledging that the injury volatility on both sides keeps this from being a higher-confidence position. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:40am

Nikola Jokic’s recent dominance of Indiana, combined with Denver’s three straight road wins, contrasts with a Pacers group that is just 2-4 over its last six and coming off a 16-point home loss to Cleveland after that short-lived two-game resurgence. Indiana is still without Haliburton and several rotation regulars, forcing Siakam, Bennedict Mathurin, and T.J. McConnell into heavy-usage roles, whereas Denver can still revolve everything around a probable Jokic even if Murray sits, leveraging its size and half-court execution against a thinner Pacers front line. With Jokic historically putting up near triple-double averages versus Indiana and Siakam’s solid but not overwhelming track record against Denver, the matchup math tilts toward a comfortable Nuggets margin more often than not, so I’m willing to lay the -7.5 at -105 with a B+ grade that reflects a strong edge but slightly more risk than the moneyline due to garbage-time and late-cover variance. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:40am