Nuggets vs Mavericks

Denver’s Nikola Jokic leads a Nuggets group riding an 11-game road winning streak and seven wins in their last eight, while Dallas has dropped three of four after melting down late in New Orleans and continues to play from behind in the West standings on the second night of a back-to-back. With Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun still sidelined but the rest of Denver’s core intact, the Nuggets’ depth and continuity contrast sharply with a Mavericks team that just lost Dereck Lively II for the season, may still be managing Cooper Flagg’s back, and is leaning heavily on Anthony Davis’ huge minutes and usage. Dallas did clip Denver 131-121 earlier this month behind monster nights from Davis, Flagg and Ryan Nembhard, but Jokic still posted a 29-20-13 line in that loss and now faces a thinner Mavs front line that has struggled to finish games and protect the rim. Laying -292 on the moneyline isn’t cheap, yet given Denver’s elite form, dominant road profile and clear health/rotation edge over a fatigued Dallas side, backing the Nuggets outright earns a **B+** grade for strong likelihood of cashing but only moderate monetary value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 23/12/2025 09:52am

Dallas’ rookie engine Cooper Flagg has helped push the Mavericks’ offense to nearly 120 points per night over their last 10, but their defense has leaked 119+ per game and just surrendered 40 points in a decisive fourth quarter, while Denver rolls in averaging around 125 points with a 51% team field-goal mark and coming off a 135-point, 24-three explosion in Utah. Both squads are on the back half of a back-to-back, which tends to sap defensive intensity more than offensive shot-making, and the matchup features two heliocentric stars in Jokic and Davis plus multiple floor-spacers on each side in a game where Denver thrives in transition and Dallas prefers to run its young legs. The first meeting landed at 252 points (131-121 Mavs) despite Denver going cold late, and the Nuggets’ fast-break production combined with the Mavs’ recent defensive collapses suggest the high total of 237.5 is reachable, though variance is elevated if Dallas’ legs go early or Denver buries them and slows the pace. That balance of strong offensive indicators against an already-inflated number makes **Over 237.5 (-115)** a **B**-grade play: attractive upside in a shootout script but with meaningful risk if either team’s legs or shooting desert them. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 23/12/2025 09:52am

Anthony Davis has been massive for Dallas lately, but he’s carrying a heavy load on a team that just coughed up a double-digit lead in New Orleans, has lost three of four, and is now playing its third game in four nights with no Dereck Lively II and a frontcourt rotation patched together behind him. Denver, by contrast, brings an 11-game road win streak and a 12-2 road record into Dallas, fresh off a 23-point demolition of Utah where Jamal Murray, Jokic and the supporting cast rained 24 threes, and their veteran core has already handled back-to-backs well this season despite ongoing absences for Gordon and Braun. While the Mavs did win outright in Denver on Dec. 1 behind a combined 84 points from Davis, Flagg and Nembhard, that performance looks like the high end of their range; more often, Dallas’ thin depth and late-game defensive issues have shown up, especially against elite offenses like Denver’s. Given the current trajectories, injury lists and recent head-to-head, laying **Nuggets -7.5 (-110)** gets a **B** grade: better value than the moneyline with a solid chance Denver’s firepower and interior advantage turn this into a multi-possession win, but still vulnerable to a backdoor cover if Dallas’ shooters stay hot late. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 23/12/2025 09:52am