Nuggets vs Mavericks

Denver’s depth, even without Nikola Jokic, looks more trustworthy on the moneyline at -105 than a severely depleted Dallas squad missing Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II and other rotation pieces who are all listed out on the game-day injury report. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview?gameId=401810430)) The Nuggets arrive at 27-13, third in the West, riding a two-game overall win streak and three straight road victories, while the 15-25 Mavericks are just 4-6 over their last 10 despite a modest one-game surge. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview?gameId=401810430)) Dallas has taken both meetings this season, including Cooper Flagg’s 33-point explosion in a 131-130 win where Jamal Murray dropped 31 for Denver, but Jokic’s absence has already been priced in and the Nuggets still carry a top-tier offense by efficiency against a turnover-prone Mavs team. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview?gameId=401810430)) With Denver’s core role players mostly intact versus a Mavericks roster leaning heavily on Flagg, Max Christie and P.J. Washington to shoulder star-level usage at the season’s midway point, I’ll back the healthier structure and better record at a slight underdog price. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/roster/_/name/den/%3A5054?utm_source=openai)) Prediction: Denver Nuggets moneyline -105, Grade B+. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/01/2026 09:47

Cooper Flagg’s emergence as a high-usage creator, combined with Dallas’ smaller lineups, keeps this matchup leaning toward an Over 225.5 (-110) look even with several marquee names sidelined. ([foxsports.com](https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nba/nuggets-vs-mavericks-prediction-odds-picks-jan-14?utm_source=openai)) Denver is playing at an elite offensive level this season (around 123 points per game with a top-ranked offensive rating) while giving up roughly 118 per night, and the Mavericks sit near 113 scored and 117 allowed, putting their combined averages well above this total. ([basketball-reference.com](https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DEN/2026_depth.html?utm_source=openai)) The first two meetings finished 131-130 and 131-121 in Dallas’ favor, showcasing how Flagg and Murray can trade buckets in a series that has already produced two 250-plus point outings. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview?gameId=401810430)) With Jokic, Davis, Lively and Jonas Valanciunas all out, both teams are thinner at the rim, which should open the paint, juice free throws and keep defenses a step slow in a game that matters for Denver’s top-four seeding and Dallas’ fading play-in hopes. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview?gameId=401810430)) Prediction: Over 225.5 (-110), Grade B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/01/2026 09:47

Jamal Murray’s late-game shot-making makes Denver +1.5 (-110) appealing in a matchup where the Nuggets have been the more stable side over 40 games, even if Dallas owns the 2-0 edge both straight-up and against the spread this season. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview?gameId=401810430)) Denver sits at 27-13 with a positive net rating and has gone 5-5 over its last 10 despite missing Jokic and several starters, while Dallas is 15-25, just 4-6 in its last 10, and now must cover as a small home favorite with an injury list that removes nearly all of its initial top-end talent. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview?gameId=401810430)) The Mavericks’ dependence on Flagg, Washington and role players to generate offense against a Nuggets group that still rebounds extremely well and punishes turnovers suggests that, over 48 minutes, Denver’s two-way floor is higher even in a building where Dallas is slightly over .500. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/preview?gameId=401810430)) With playoff positioning tightening at the halfway mark and Nuggets coach David Adelman leaning on Murray-centric closing lineups, grabbing the points with the deeper contender earns a small edge in both probability and value. ([basketball-reference.com](https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DEN/2026_depth.html?utm_source=openai)) Prediction: Denver Nuggets +1.5 (-110), Grade B+. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/01/2026 09:47