Nuggets vs Hawks

Nikola Jokic and Denver’s top-ranked offense travel to Atlanta having gone just 2–3 in their last five but still boasting a dominant scoring margin and an eight-game road winning streak, while the Hawks enter on a 2–3 skid of their own and remain without Trae Young plus several other rotation pieces either out or listed as questionable. With Aaron Gordon sidelined, the Nuggets are thinner at forward, yet Jokic’s history of carving up Atlanta and Jamal Murray’s recent scoring heater give Denver a clear talent and continuity edge over a Hawks group leaning heavily on Jalen Johnson and hoping Kristaps Porzingis can shake off an illness in time. At -260, the price reflects much of that edge, but the combination of Denver’s sustained offensive efficiency, Atlanta’s injury-riddled backcourt, and recent defensive slippage from the Hawks still makes the Nuggets moneyline a strong but juice-heavy play, graded A- for likelihood with modest value relative to the risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:42am

Atlanta’s offense has cooled during its recent 2–3 stretch, averaging closer to the mid-110s while now missing its primary on-ball creator in Young and potentially managing minutes for both Porzingis and Johnson, a context that tends to flatten pace and shot quality even against Denver’s explosive attack. The Nuggets are still scoring at an elite rate, but with Gordon out, their preferred switchable lineups are disrupted, which can encourage a slower, Jokic-centric half-court style rather than a full-on track meet, especially on the road. Given that both teams are dealing with short rotations and nagging injuries and that Denver’s defense is at least league-average when locked in, 238.5 hangs above what this shorthanded version of Atlanta is likely to contribute, so the Under gets a B+ as a solid, if not slam-dunk, position with decent value if the game tilts more grindy than shootout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:42am

Jokic’s recent dominance of the Hawks’ interior, combined with Murray’s surging form and Denver’s overall +9-ish point differential, suggests the Nuggets are well-positioned to punish an Atlanta team that has dropped recent games by 19 and 23 points while juggling absences for Young, depth concerns and the uncertain health of key frontcourt pieces like Porzingis and Johnson. Even without Gordon, Denver still brings a stable core, high-end half-court execution and a strong road profile, whereas the Hawks must rely on secondary creators and volatile shooting to keep things inside one or two possessions. That said, Atlanta’s home court, the possibility of Porzingis and Johnson suiting up, and Denver’s own injury list introduce enough variance that laying -6.5 is more attractive than the moneyline but carries greater risk, earning a B grade as a fair-reward play if you trust the Nuggets’ talent and coaching to separate late. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:42am