Mavericks vs Spurs

San Antonio Spurs enter with a three-game winning streak and a 35-16 record, including 18-6 at home, while the 19-32 Dallas Mavericks limp in on a six-game skid and a 5-15 road mark, with ESPN’s model giving the Spurs a roughly three-in-four win probability. Dallas is still adjusting after trading Anthony Davis and remains without key pieces like Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II for the season, thinning their top-end talent and interior defense. San Antonio has already taken the first two meetings 125-123 and 135-123, with Victor Wembanyama dropping 29 points and 11 boards in Thursday’s win and De’Aaron Fox repeatedly punishing Dallas’ shaky perimeter resistance, underscoring a matchup edge on both ends as the Spurs chase top-two seeding in the West while Dallas drifts away from the play-in. Laying -500 offers limited value but a very high likelihood of cashing, so the pick is Spurs moneyline at A- for probability with modest return. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/02/2026 09:44

Cooper Flagg and Victor Wembanyama just combined for 61 points in a 135-123 Spurs victory, the second straight matchup in this series to land well above 240 total points, signaling how explosive this fixture can be. San Antonio averages 117.2 points scored and 112.0 allowed, while Dallas sits at 114.0 for and 116.8 against on nearly identical 47% shooting, pointing to efficient offenses and leaky defenses on both sides. With the Spurs on a three-game offensive roll, the Mavs still scoring through Flagg, Naji Marshall and Daniel Gafford despite their losing streak, and Dallas missing season-ending rim protector Dereck Lively II, there’s little reason to expect a slowed pace or sudden defensive turnaround. Even with the total set high at 230.5, recent head-to-head results and current form make the Over at -110 a solid but not elite value play, graded a B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/02/2026 09:44

Dallas’ young core, led by Flagg, Marshall and veteran shooter Klay Thompson, has been competitive in defeat, with recent losses coming by 12, 10, 4, 2 and 13 points, meaning a +10.5 cushion would have covered in three of their last five despite the current six-game skid. espn.com San Antonio has dominated the season series 2-0, but those wins came by 2 and 12 points, and the Spurs now lay double digits against a desperate Mavericks group still clinging to faint play-in hopes in a Southwest Division they trail by 16 games. espn.com With Dallas already priced as a heavy moneyline dog, San Antonio missing or managing several rotation pieces Jeremy Sochan, Luke Kornet and De’Aaron Fox all on the injury report and the Mavs capable of late scoring flurries behind Flagg’s four straight 30-plus outings in this recent stretch, taking the points offers slightly better value than laying a big number with the home favorite. espn.com The pick is Mavericks +10.5 at -120, graded B- given volatility, juice, and the risk of another Spurs surge turning this into a backdoor sweat. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/02/2026 09:44