Mavericks vs Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder enter this one on a lengthy winning streak at 21-1 with the league’s best net rating and defense, hosting an 8-15 Mavericks team that has needed a three-game heater from rookie Cooper Flagg and a resurgent Anthony Davis just to climb out of an early hole. Dallas is still dealing with a long injury list—Kyrie Irving and Dante Exum remain out, Dereck Lively II has no timetable, and both Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington are banged up—while Oklahoma City’s absences (Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein and others) mostly hit depth rather than their primary engines. Given OKC already handled this new-look Dallas roster 101-94 on the road in October and now returns home to Paycom Center with Gilgeous-Alexander scoring at an MVP level, the Thunder moneyline at -1100 is the clear side even if the price offers limited upside. I’m grading this as a B pick—very high win probability but modest standalone value unless used as a parlay anchor. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 10:07am

Oklahoma City’s elite defense, allowing only about 107 points per game while still scoring over 122 themselves, meets a Mavericks team averaging roughly 111 points but giving up close to 116, yet their first meeting finished at just 195 total points as the Thunder controlled tempo and smothered Dallas in the paint. With the Mavs likely short multiple creators and shooters (Irving and Exum out, Lively sidelined, Washington and Gafford less than 100 percent) and OKC missing some supporting offense and perimeter bite in Dort, Caruso and Hartenstein, this projects more like a methodical, defense-driven game than a full-on shootout, especially if the Thunder get up big and grind the pace late. Dallas’ three-game surge has ridden unsustainably hot shooting against soft defenses, which is much harder to replicate against this length and rim protection, so a total of 229.5 looks a touch high relative to the matchup profile and the way these teams played in October. I lean to Under 229.5 (-110) and grade it a B, reflecting a solid edge built on defensive metrics and injury context but some risk out of sheer Thunder offensive firepower. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 10:07am

Dallas’ three-game win streak—sparked by Cooper Flagg’s rapid rise as their leading scorer, including a recent 35-point explosion, and Anthony Davis’ steady two-way impact—suggests this group is stabilizing enough to stay within shouting distance even as it walks into the Thunder’s dominant home court. In the October matchup, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren were excellent yet OKC still only won by seven in Dallas, and now the champs are laying a massive -15 despite being without key rotation defenders and playmakers like Dort, Caruso and Hartenstein, while Dallas brings more continuity with Flagg fully healthy after that early shoulder scare and D’Angelo Russell settling into a primary playmaking role. The Mavericks’ defense is certainly vulnerable, but with their offense trending up and enough size and shot-making from Davis, Flagg, Klay Thompson and others to avoid long scoring droughts, a backdoor cover or simply a competitive loss inside double digits is very live even against a juggernaut with a huge net rating edge. I’ll take Mavericks +15 (-110) with a B+ grade, trusting the big cushion and Dallas’ improved form more than OKC’s ability—or need—to win by 16-plus in a regular-season spot. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 10:07am