DAL vs NYK

New York leans on Karl-Anthony Towns and a loaded defensive wing group to stabilize a team that, despite a three-game losing streak and 2–8 skid over its last 10, still sits third in the East at 25–17 with a strong 16–5 home mark and +3.5 point differential, while Dallas arrives at 17–26, just 4–14 on the road with a -2.8 differential but on a modest two-game win streak. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/standings)) The Knicks already edged these Mavericks 113–111 in Dallas earlier this season behind 28 points from former Mav Jalen Brunson and a 22-point, 14-rebound line from Towns, and now get the rematch at Madison Square Garden. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/ny/seasontype/2)) Dallas is severely shorthanded: Kyrie Irving (knee), Anthony Davis (finger), Dereck Lively II (foot) and Danté Exum (knee) are all out long term, and important rotation pieces Daniel Gafford, D’Angelo Russell and P.J. Washington are ruled out for this matchup as well, while rookie Cooper Flagg is banged up; by contrast, New York’s main concerns are Brunson and Josh Hart being listed as questionable rather than unavailable, with Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Towns and Mitchell Robinson still forming a high-level core. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/dal/dallas-mavericks)) With New York’s superior health at the top of the roster, home-court advantage and demonstrated head-to-head edge against this injury-ravaged Dallas group, I’m backing New York Knicks -450 on the moneyline as a high-likelihood but juice-heavy play, grading it a B for strong safety but only middling monetary value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/01/2026 10:08

Dallas’ depleted offense and New York’s recent 2–8 stretch with three straight losses shape how this total sets up, with the Knicks’ season-long games averaging roughly 233 points (118.4 scored, 114.9 allowed) and the Mavericks’ about 231 (114.2 scored, 117.0 allowed), but much of that came with heavier minutes from now-injured stars like Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis for Dallas and a healthier Jalen Brunson for New York. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/standings)) Tonight the Mavs are missing Irving, Davis, Dereck Lively II, Danté Exum and several rotation pieces, gutting their shot creation and interior finishing, while the Knicks must monitor Brunson’s and Josh Hart’s ankles, which could shift more usage to half-court looks for Towns, Bridges and Anunoby rather than an up-and-down pace. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/dal/dallas-mavericks)) The first meeting finished 113–111 (224 total), under this 230.5 number even before Dallas’ injuries fully mounted, and with both teams at or past the 41-game mark and laser-focused on playoff positioning—New York guarding a top-four seed, Dallas trying to claw into the West play-in—there’s added incentive to tighten rotations and defenses rather than play a track meet. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/ny/seasontype/2)) That combination of recent form, injury-driven offensive downgrades and midseason playoff urgency has me leaning to Under 230.5 at -110, a Grade B play with a slightly above-average edge but still some risk if New York’s shooters catch fire against Dallas’ thin front line. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/01/2026 10:08

Dallas backers grabbing +10.5 points are betting that a Mavericks team that has steadied to 5–5 over its last 10 and rides a two-game win streak can keep things respectable against a Knicks squad that, while still 16–5 at home and firmly third in the East, has stumbled to a three-game skid and 2–8 mark over its past 10. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/standings)) The size and skill of Karl-Anthony Towns next to Mitchell Robinson against a Dallas front line missing Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford is a real concern for anyone taking the dog, but the Mavs’ earlier 113–111 loss to New York showed they could hang for 48 minutes, and the two Mavericks who hurt the Knicks most that night—D’Angelo Russell (23 points) and P.J. Washington (10 boards)—are now out, forcing Jason Kidd to lean more on versatile wings like Naji Marshall, Max Christie and rookie Cooper Flagg. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/dal/seasontype/2)) On the New York side, Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart carrying ankle issues raise the odds of slightly more conservative usage and late-game minute management, which, coupled with the playoff-race context of a contender trying to get right rather than run up the score, creates a path for a competitive margin even in a likely Knicks win. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/ny/new-york-knicks)) Given the clash between New York’s clear talent and matchup advantages and its current form and health questions, I’ll take Dallas Mavericks +10.5 at -118 with a Grade B- as a modest value play on the points rather than laying a big number with a slumping favorite. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 19/01/2026 10:08