Cowboys vs Giants

Both teams actually arrive on modest one-game winning streaks—Dallas snapping a three-game skid with its Christmas win at Washington and New York finally ending a nine-game freefall in Las Vegas—but over a full season the more trustworthy side on the moneyline remains the Cowboys at -185. Dallas has been the better scoring team (454 points vs. the Giants’ 347) and still plays behind a locked-in Dak Prescott, who has been confirmed as the Week 18 starter and carries a personal 14-game winning streak over the Giants into a matchup where the franchise has taken nine straight and 78 of 127 all-time. On the other side, rookie Jaxson Dart has injected life into New York’s offense yet is still early in his development curve, and he now has to work behind a beat-up supporting cast that includes a lengthy injury list headlined by key playmaker Wan’Dale Robinson and multiple defensive contributors, while Dallas’ issues are more concentrated in ancillary spots like tight end and interior line. With both teams already eliminated from playoff contention this comes down to pride and professionalism more than seeding, and in a cold but dry MetLife setting that shouldn’t introduce extreme randomness, backing the healthier quarterback advantage and long-term matchup edge simply to win is worth laying this price, so I’m on the Cowboys moneyline with a Grade of A-. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:41([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nfl/preview/_/gameId/401772963))

From a totals standpoint, the starting point is that Dallas games have averaged well north of 50 points this season given a top-tier offense and a defense that has allowed 477 points, while Giants contests sit just under that threshold, putting the combined season-long scoring profile slightly above this 50-point number even before matchup adjustments. New York’s defense has tightened considerably over the last month under Mike Kafka and Charlie Bullen, but that improvement is offset by the style and personnel here: Prescott and the Cowboys still push the ball aggressively to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, Dart brings real dual-threat red-zone punch, and both secondaries come in with important pieces on the injury report, including Wan’Dale Robinson on offense for the Giants and multiple depth and role players for Dallas that thin out their rotational options. Cold, breezy but dry January conditions at an outdoor MetLife should lean more toward slightly conservative game plans than full-on shootout weather, yet with these quarterbacks, the Cowboys’ history of putting big numbers on this defense, and a combined points-for figure that already projects into the low 50s, I still see enough scoring paths to justify Over 50 at -110 with a Grade of A-. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:41([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nfl/preview/_/gameId/401772963))

Against the spread, I’m willing to lay the -3.5 with Dallas at -105, even with the hook on the key number, because the same factors that favor the Cowboys straight up often translate into margin when they get separation: a significant quarterback edge with Prescott over the rookie Dart, deeper perimeter weapons, and a rivalry history that has produced nine consecutive Dallas wins and plenty of multi-score results. The Giants’ Week 17 blowout in Las Vegas and Dart’s rushing upside do introduce real backdoor potential, and New York’s defense has genuinely improved over the last few games, which is why this isn’t an A-level confidence play—especially with both sides carrying long injury reports that include starters or heavy-usage players like Robinson for the Giants and key contributors in the Cowboys’ run game and passing tree. Still, with both teams out of the playoff picture, I expect Dallas’ veteran offense and coaching staff to stay aggressive, and if the Cowboys reach the high-20s to low-30s as their season-long scoring and earlier 40–37 win over New York suggest is very possible, they’re more likely than not to clear this short road number, so I’ll take Cowboys -3.5 at -105 with a Grade of B+. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:41([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nfl/preview/_/gameId/401772963))