Mavericks vs Pelicans

Dallas leans on Anthony Davis and rookie forward Cooper Flagg to stop a one-game skid against a Pelicans squad riding a four-game winning streak, and that combination of size and two-way impact still gives the Mavericks a slight edge at a -110 pick’em price. With Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II and Dante Exum all sidelined, Dallas is shorthanded in ball-handling and rim protection, but Davis has historically punished this franchise — including a 31-point, 14-rebound performance in New Orleans last season — and now pairs with Flagg and P.J. Washington to attack a Pelicans defense that remains near the bottom of the league despite its recent surge. New Orleans is missing Dejounte Murray and could have Herbert Jones limited, which puts an enormous creation load on Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole against a longer, more disciplined Dallas front line, and the Mavericks have already shown they can edge this matchup in one-possession games earlier this year. With both teams under .500 and still well short of the season’s halfway mark, this is more about current form and injury tables than standings leverage, and Dallas’ superior half-court shot quality nudges this coin-flip toward the visitors, though the even moneyline keeps the value to a solid but unspectacular B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 22/12/2025 09:42am

New Orleans’ four-game heater has featured improved scoring balance from Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III and Jordan Poole, but the underlying math points slightly toward the under on a lofty 238 total given these rosters and current injuries. Dallas averages about 113 points per game while the Pelicans sit in the mid-110s, so their combined season scoring profile is roughly 10 points below this number, and both offenses skew toward half-court touches through bigs like Davis, Flagg, Williamson and Derik Queen rather than constant transition. The Mavericks are without Kyrie Irving and multiple rotation guards, while the Pelicans remain without Murray and have Jones banged up, trimming live dribble creation on both sides and increasing the likelihood of slower, grindier possessions and fewer efficient threes. Their first two meetings this season landed at 233 and 200 total points, and with Dallas’ recent turnover and rebounding issues likely emphasizing defensive focus and tempo control, the under 238 at -110 grades out as a slightly better-than-average value play at B+. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 22/12/2025 09:42am

Zion Williamson’s relentless pressure on the rim and a bench that has recently exploded for big scoring nights make the Pelicans a dangerous home underdog in theory, but with this matchup lined as a true pick’em at +0/-0, Dallas’ length and experience still offer a marginal edge against the spread. The Mavericks can throw multiple mobile bigs — Davis, Flagg, P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford — at Zion and Derik Queen while also having switchable wings like Naji Marshall and Caleb Martin to bother shooters such as Murphy and Poole, who has been more of a volume, streaky scorer than a consistently efficient threat in his prior games against Dallas. New Orleans is still missing Murray and managing Jones’ health, while Dallas is navigating absences to Irving, Lively and Exum plus several questionable wings, so depth volatility on both sides keeps the confidence level modest and increases the probability of late-game randomness in a one-possession contest. Given that the spread and moneyline are effectively identical and the Pelicans’ recent hot streak and home whistle are real counterweights, backing Mavericks +0 at -110 is a thinner edge than the raw matchup suggests, landing at a cautious B-. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 22/12/2025 09:42am