Stars vs Devils

With Jack Hughes sidelined for roughly two months after finger surgery and Brenden Dillon banged up on top of Evgenii Dadonov’s absence, the Devils come into this one thinner than their roster page suggests, just as Dallas arrives with most of its core intact and rolling despite an overtime loss at Madison Square Garden last night snapping a four-game win streak. The Stars have been one of the league’s best teams over the past few weeks, driven by Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston, and they pair that scoring depth with a power play humming near 32 percent against a Devils penalty kill that has been good but is under heavy workload thanks to recent defensive chaos. New Jersey still has plenty of weapons in Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier and Timo Meier, and their strong home form earlier in the season plus Dallas playing a road back-to-back will keep this from being one-way traffic, but the current version of the Devils without Hughes and with a patched blue line is a clear step down from full strength. Robertson’s track record of piling up assists and a strong plus-minus against New Jersey, combined with Jake Oettinger behind a Miro Heiskanen–led defense that has held opponents under three goals per game, nudges the matchup edge toward the visitors even in a tough scheduling spot. With the market pricing Dallas at -105 and New Jersey at -115, I see enough edge in the healthier, deeper Stars to back their side on the Moneyline at an A- grade for both win probability and value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:23am

Even with Hughes out, I lean Over 6 at -105 because both profiles still point toward offense: Dallas is averaging well over three goals per night with a top-two power play in the league, while New Jersey, led by Bratt, Hischier and Meier, is also above three goals per game with a top-five power play of its own, and special teams should be a major factor against an only average Stars penalty kill. The Devils’ last two games in this homestand have been messy 5-3 losses marked by defensive breakdowns after Dillon’s injury and heavy minutes for a young blue line, and they’ve generally played high-event hockey at Prudential Center this season, while recent Stars contests have routinely landed at six or more goals as their deep forward group keeps generating chances. Goaltending on both sides is good but volatile—Oettinger has the talent to steal a game yet has struggled in a past start against New Jersey, and the Markstrom/Allen tandem has swung from shutout-level to subpar in a matter of days—so it’s easier to project a 4-2 or 4-3 type script than a 2-1 grinder. Add in that Dallas is on the third game of a road-heavy stretch, which often leads to tired legs and late breakdowns, and that New Jersey’s power play can punish even small mistakes, and Over 6 (-105) grades out as a B: a solid but not elite edge with some protection via a push on exactly six goals. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:23am

On the puckline, I prefer taking the insurance with Dallas +1.5 at -260 rather than chasing New Jersey -1.5 at a big plus price, because the Stars’ structure, goaltending and depth make them a classic one-goal-game team, while the Devils’ home schedule has already featured a long run of tight results even before the latest wobble. Dallas owns the more stable five-on-five profile and a clear edge in net with Oettinger and a Heiskanen–Harley top pair, whereas New Jersey is navigating life without Hughes, missing Dadonov’s depth scoring and managing Dillon’s status on the back end, all of which chip away at their margin for a multi-goal win even if they still carry home-ice edge and strong special teams. At the same time, the Devils’ remaining core and Prudential Center crowd are enough to keep their outright chances very real, which is exactly why grabbing the goal-and-a-half on the better overall roster makes sense: it covers scenarios ranging from an outright Stars win to a 4-3 or 3-2 Devils victory where Dallas hangs around on the strength of its power play and goaltending. Because the price at -260 bakes in a lot of that edge and leaves less long-term upside than the Moneyline, I grade Dallas Stars +1.5 (-260) at B-, acknowledging a high likelihood of cashing but only modest expected value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:23am