Mavericks vs Heat

Miami’s surging core at Kaseya Center gets a prime spot to extend a four-game winning streak against a Dallas group that’s lost seven of its last eight and comes in at 5-13 with a one-game skid in a tightly packed Southwest race. With Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II sidelined up front and Dante Exum already ruled out for the season, the Mavericks are leaning heavily on rookie Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington and Max Christie for creation while still lacking star shot-making and rim protection, which is a rough recipe on the road against a Heat team that’s 7-1 at home and scoring nearly 125 points per night behind Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo. Miami’s backcourt is banged up too, but the expectation of Tyler Herro’s season debut—after dropping 40 on Dallas in February—and the Heat’s recent blowouts over teams like Chicago and Charlotte tilt both talent and depth toward the favorite, even if the -320 price tag limits the value to a solid but not elite play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/11/2025 09:52am

Dallas’ undermanned offense and Miami’s growing defensive swagger make this lofty 241.5 total feel inflated, even with the Heat’s top-three scoring profile. The Mavericks are averaging just under 110 points per game and now travel without Anthony Davis’ interior gravity or Dereck Lively II’s vertical lob threat, which puts even more shot-creation burden on young wings against a Heat team that’s been winning by margin while holding recent opponents like the Warriors and Knicks in check at home. Historically this matchup has rarely pushed into the mid-240s without overtime—even last season’s Miami OT win in this building landed on 241 while February’s Herro-led 40-point eruption in Dallas finished at 231—and if Herro is on a minutes cap in his return, Miami’s offense may be more balanced than explosive. Combining Dallas’ attrition, Miami’s improved halfcourt defense and the potential for a controlled Heat win rather than a full four-quarter track meet, the Under 241.5 at -105 grades out as a strong-value position. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/11/2025 09:52am

Cooper Flagg’s emergence has kept Dallas competitive in stretches, but asking this injury-hit Mavericks roster to stay inside eight on the road against a red-hot Miami side is a big ask. The Mavs have dropped five of their last six by at least six points—including a 33-point blowout to San Antonio—and now head into a frontcourt matchup where Bam Adebayo attacks a rotation missing both Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II, leaving Jason Kidd to patch together minutes with smaller lineups that have struggled on the glass. Miami, meanwhile, has ripped off multiple double-digit home wins behind Norman Powell’s 25-plus scoring and a bench that still runs deep even with Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic and Terry Rozier on the injury report, and the possibility of Tyler Herro’s return only widens the talent gap if he’s close to his usual level. Dallas has played enough tight games that a late backdoor is a concern, but given current form, injury imbalance and the Heat’s elite home splits, laying the -8 with Miami at -110 earns a modest value edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/11/2025 09:52am