Cowboys vs Lions: NFC Playoff Race Clash

Dallas rides a three-game win streak into Detroit while the Lions have dropped two of their last three, and that current trajectory combines with Detroit’s banged-up skill group to make the plus-money side attractive on the road. With Amon-Ra St. Brown a genuine game-time call off a low-ankle sprain and Kalif Raymond plus multiple tight ends already ruled out, Goff loses reliability and explosiveness just as he faces a Cowboys defense that, despite injuries to pieces like Trevon Diggs and Jadeveon Clowney, has tightened up during this recent run. Dak Prescott is healthy, operating behind a still-functional line even without Tyler Guyton, and he gets to lean on CeeDee Lamb, who has historically shredded Detroit (well over 100 receiving yards per game across three meetings), in an indoor setting where Dallas’ recent 6.6 yards per play over its last three contests should translate. Goff’s past success against Dallas and the Lions’ home-field edge keep this from being a slam dunk, but with both teams clustered around the NFC playoff bubble and the line having already crashed from Detroit -6 to around -3, the Cowboys’ +136 moneyline offers better risk-reward than laying a price with an injury-thinned favorite; I grade this a B for solid value with moderate volatility. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:30am

The total has been bet up aggressively from the high 40s to 54.5, but with Detroit’s passing tree compromised and both teams carrying defensive injuries rather than outright collapses, this number now asks for sustained fireworks in a short-week spot that often compresses scoring. Dallas’ offense is undeniably hot and well-suited to attack a Lions secondary that has already allowed more than 25 passing touchdowns and sits in the middle of the pack in passing yardage allowed, yet taking St. Brown from full strength to limited or inactive, removing Raymond, and downgrading Detroit’s tight end room materially lowers Goff’s margin for error in the red zone. On the other side, Dan Campbell can lean more heavily on Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to shorten the game against a Cowboys front that’s nicked but still physical, while Prescott may not need to chase points if Dallas controls game script as a live underdog. Factor in the elevated total, the playoff pressure that can steer coaches toward slightly more conservative fourth-down and red-zone decisions, and the possibility that Detroit’s offense simply isn’t its usual self without its target hog, and the Under 54.5 at -115 gets a cautious B- as a number-driven fade of the late steam rather than a conviction play on a slog. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:30am

Getting a full field goal with Dallas feels like the cleanest way to play this matchup, marrying the Cowboys’ recent surge with downside protection against Detroit’s home-field and Goff’s history of punching holes in this defense. The Lions remain justifiably favored in their own building, but their final injury report—with St. Brown listed as questionable on a low-ankle sprain and key contributors like Raymond, Brock Wright, Shane Zylstra, and Kerby Joseph ruled out—suggests a narrower band of offensive outcomes than usual, especially if protection issues resurface against a Dallas front that can still generate pressure even if Clowney is limited. Prescott, meanwhile, is in rhythm with Lamb and midseason acquisition George Pickens, and Lamb’s three-game sample against Detroit (roughly 129 yards per outing) underscores how comfortably he’s matched up with Aaron Glenn’s coverage structures. In a game with tight NFC wild-card implications, where the market has already swung strongly toward Dallas from an opener near Lions -6, grabbing Cowboys +3 at -108 earns a B+ as a combination of form, injury context, and key number value, with the expectation that even a Lions win is more likely to land inside a field goal than outside it. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:30am