Avalanche vs Lightning

Nathan MacKinnon drags a banged-up Avalanche group into Tampa riding a 10-1-0 surge over their last 11, but they’re coming off a regulation loss in Florida and will again be without Gabriel Landeskog, Devon Toews and Mackenzie Blackwood, which helps explain why the league’s best team is only a small road favorite despite a ridiculous 31-3-7 mark and a dominant goal differential. Tampa counters with a seven-game heater of its own behind Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, plus a deep forward group that just hung multiple five-spots on Anaheim, Los Angeles and San Jose, yet the Lightning blue line is still patchwork without Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh and leans heavily on Andrei Vasilevskiy to paper over mistakes. Colorado already edged Tampa 3-2 in Denver earlier this season, and with MacKinnon, Martin Necas and Cale Makar driving elite five-on-five play even on the wrong side of rest, I lean to the Avalanche to grind out another one-goal win in a matchup that also carries Presidents’ Trophy and conference seeding weight at the schedule’s midpoint. At -118, the price implies a coin flip plus a bit; I’d call this around a 55–57% win chance given Colorado’s overall profile versus Tampa’s home-ice and form, making it a solid but not must-bet edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/01/2026 09:26

With Colorado leading the league in both goals for and goals against per game and Tampa Bay sitting in the upper tier offensively behind Kucherov, Point, Jake Guentzel and Brandon Hagel, a total of 6 feels a touch light for this spot, especially given how both power plays can punish mistakes. The Avalanche still drive play at an elite rate, but the absence of Toews in the top pair and Blackwood in net raises the volatility in front of Scott Wedgewood, and Landeskog’s injury nudges them slightly toward more rush-heavy, high-event hockey rather than grinding, low-event cycles. On the other side, Tampa’s current seven-game streak has featured plenty of scoring, and a defense corps headlined by J.J. Moser, Erik Cernak and Charle-Edouard D’Astous has been solid but is clearly a step down from a fully healthy Hedman–McDonagh group, which can turn extended Colorado zone time into fatigue and breakdowns. With both clubs firmly in the playoff mix at the midway point and chasing conference leads, this projects as a high-tempo, “stars decide it” kind of game, and while Vasilevskiy is capable of stealing any night, the combination of top-end shooters, travel wear on Colorado’s legs and Tampa’s attacking mindset makes Over 6 at -125 a lean to the upside, though the juice knocks it down to a B- in terms of value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/01/2026 09:26

Given Colorado’s road-heavy week, the cluster of key injuries on the Avalanche side, and Tampa’s current seven-game roll in front of its own crowd, this matchup profiles much more like a tight, playoff-style measuring-stick game than a spot where the visitors routinely win by multiple goals, which tilts me toward Lightning +1.5 despite the hefty price. The first meeting in Denver finished 3-2, and Tampa historically has handled Colorado reasonably well at home, with Kucherov’s point-per-game-plus track record against the Avs and Vasilevskiy’s solid career numbers in the matchup suggesting the Bolts rarely get run out of their own building even against this version of Colorado. With MacKinnon, Necas and Makar still capable of tilting shot share and expected goals, you have to respect the chance that Colorado’s talent margin produces another regulation win, but between the Avs’ missing Toews and Landeskog, Wedgewood likely starting again at the end of a trip, and Tampa’s top six cooking, the most likely script is a one-goal result either way. Because laying -220 on a puckline underdog only makes sense if you’re extremely confident it stays close, this grades out as a safety-first but low-upside play at C+, more appealing as a parlay leg than a standalone bet. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/01/2026 09:26