Colorado Avalanche vs St. Louis Blues

Nathan MacKinnon and the Avalanche head into St. Louis on a rare one-game skid after dropping Sunday’s 3-2 decision to these same Blues, while St. Louis rides a two-game win streak that has briefly revived its late playoff push. Colorado is dealing with key day-to-day questions in Cale Makar and Valeri Nichushkin, which slightly dampens their edge but doesn’t erase the overall gap between the NHL’s top defensive team and a Blues roster that still allows close to three goals per night. Even with Robert Thomas coming off a hat trick and historically strong showings against Colorado, recent head-to-heads still tilt toward the Avs’ high-end talent, highlighted by MacKinnon and Nichushkin’s multi-goal explosion in the 6-1 meeting back in December, and the Avalanche’s superior goal differential and special-teams profile matter even more with both clubs past 70 games and jockeying for playoff positioning. With Colorado already essentially locked into home ice and St. Louis clinging to slim wildcard hopes, motivation exists on both sides, but the Avs’ deeper, healthier blue line and elite five-on-five play still justify them as road favorites; at -150, the price isn’t a steal yet remains reasonable given their season-long dominance. I’m laying the number with Colorado on the moneyline at -150 for a B+ grade, reflecting a solid edge in win probability with decent, if not spectacular, value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/04/2026 09:39

Colorado’s recent stretch has mixed track-meet scores (9-2 over Calgary, 8-6 against Vancouver) with tighter playoff-style efforts like the 2-0 road win in Dallas and Sunday’s 3-2 loss to St. Louis, while the Blues’ own surge has featured more offense but still plenty of games landing in the five- or six-goal range. The Avalanche’s injury list — with Makar and Nichushkin both listed day-to-day — introduces uncertainty on both the rush and the power play, but their league-best goals-against profile and penalty kill tend to drag pace down in higher-leverage spots, especially on the road. On the other side, a largely healthy Blues group built around Thomas, Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich has found more scoring of late, yet their season-long attack is still middling, and against Colorado’s structure they just showed that their path is grinding out low-event hockey rather than trading chances. With both teams past the 41-game mark and deep into the playoff race — Colorado trying to lock up the conference and St. Louis trying to stay alive in the wildcard chase — this sets up more like a disciplined, whistle-heavy contest than another December-style shootout. At a total of 6 with the Under at -110, I like the combination of elite Avalanche goaltending and defensive metrics plus playoff-style intensity to keep this in the 3-2 or 4-2 range; I’m taking Under 6 at -110 for a B grade, acknowledging the Avs’ explosive ceiling but leaning on their defense and the Blues’ conservative game script. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/04/2026 09:39

Colorado enters this rematch off a one-goal loss to St. Louis and, despite a season full of multi-goal wins, has recently played a string of tighter games against playoff-caliber opposition, while the Blues come home on a two-game win streak in which only the 6-2 Anaheim result was decided by more than one. With the Avalanche listing Makar, Nichushkin and Nicolas Roy as day-to-day, their ability to consistently roll four dangerous lines and two high-end power-play units may be trimmed just enough to keep this from turning into another 6-1 blowout like the New Year’s Eve meeting, especially against a Blues lineup that is currently free of listed injuries and leaning heavily on a big blue line led by Colton Parayko and Cam Fowler. Robert Thomas’ recent dominance versus Colorado, combined with Jordan Kyrou’s transition speed and a Blues goaltending tandem that has held up well during this late surge, suggests St. Louis is more likely to hang around at home than to completely implode, particularly with their playoff hopes on the line and the Avs already in strong position atop the Central. Given how often Blues games in this stretch have finished within a goal, and acknowledging that Colorado is still rightly favored to win outright, the value on the home side’s resilience lies with the margin rather than the moneyline. I’m grabbing St. Louis +1.5 at -188 for a B grade, backing a desperate home team to keep Colorado’s revenge bid close even if the visitors ultimately escape with the points. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/04/2026 09:39