Avalanche vs Flyers

Nathan MacKinnon and the Avalanche roll into Philadelphia on the second leg of a back-to-back riding a 15-1-3 heater over their last 19, while the Flyers have quietly gone 4-1-0 in their past five, including a 5-2 home win over Buffalo to restore momentum after a flat night against Pittsburgh. Colorado isn’t at full strength with depth pieces like Gavin Brindley, Logan O’Connor and Scott Wedgewood on the shelf, but the more material injury news is on the Flyers’ side: leading goal-scorer Tyson Foerster is out 2–3 months and Rasmus Ristolainen remains unavailable, thinning both their finishing and defensive depth. With MacKinnon already on 24 goals and coming off a two-goal night at Madison Square Garden, and Mackenzie Blackwood having shut out Philly 2-0 in their last meeting, Colorado’s top-end talent has consistently tilted this matchup, even as the historical series between these franchises is nearly dead even overall. Add in the Avs’ league-best goal differential, elite 4.00 goals per game and strong track record in back-to-backs, against a Flyers group that defends hard but still allows close to three goals per night, and the road side’s win probability sits roughly in line with the implied 60% break-even at 155, with a small edge coming from Foerster’s absence and Colorado’s current form. I’d lean to Colorado on the moneyline at 155 with an A- grade: high confidence in the better team, solid—but not massive—value given travel and the Flyers’ home form. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:23am

Both teams come in trending toward higher-event hockey: Colorado’s last four have totaled 8, 4, 7 and 5 goals, while Philadelphia’s recent run (4-2 at Florida, 4-3 at the Islanders, 5-3 at New Jersey, 1-5 vs Pittsburgh, 5-2 vs Buffalo) averages close to seven combined goals, even before accounting for the Avs’ league-leading 4.00 goals scored and 2.18 allowed per game. The main drag on offense is the Flyers’ injury list—losing Foerster, who shares the team lead with 10 goals, meaning more burden on Trevor Zegras, Travis Konecny and Matvei Michkov to finish—but Colorado’s firepower with MacKinnon, Martin Necas and a deep forward group generally dictates pace regardless of opponent, and this matchup has historically leaned slightly high-scoring in aggregate, even if last season’s 2-0 Avs win in Denver was a goalie-driven outlier. With Dan Vladar and Aleksei Kolosov stabilizing Philly’s crease and the Avs suppressing chances as well as anyone, a full-on track meet isn’t guaranteed, yet their combined season scoring profiles land right around or a tick above six, making a push relatively common but still leaving a mild lean to the Over at 6 despite the extra juice. I’d grade Over 6 at 120 as a B: the number is sharp and goaltending risk is real, but current form and offensive talent on both sides nudge this just into “worth a look” territory. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:23am

Given Colorado’s edge straight up, the puckline value tilts toward a Flyers team that’s 9-4-2 at home and has been competitive in almost every building, winning four of its last five while rarely getting blown out in the process. The key context is again injuries versus depth: Philadelphia is missing Foerster and Ristolainen, but still ices a capable top six centered around Zegras, Sean Couturier and Owen Tippett, while Colorado’s absences are mostly lower in the lineup and have not stopped them from owning the league’s best goal differential behind MacKinnon, Cale Makar and a rotating cast of secondary scorers. Historically the matchup has favored tighter margins than the Avs’ average win profile implies—last year’s 2-0 result in Denver needed a Blackwood shutout and special-teams dagger, and the Flyers’ upgraded goaltending tandem of Vladar and Kolosov has pushed their goals against into respectable territory this season. On the second half of a back-to-back, with travel and an early local start time working slightly against Colorado’s margin for error, a one-goal Avalanche win feels like a very live outcome, making Philadelphia +1.5 at 180 an appealing way to capture both their resilience and Colorado’s likelihood of ultimately taking the points. I’d stamp that with a B+ grade: solid value on the home dog to keep it within a goal, even while expecting the Avalanche to escape Broad Street with the win. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:23am