Avalanche vs Islanders

Nathan MacKinnon and the Avalanche roll into UBS Arena riding a 9-0-1 surge over their last 10 games while outscoring opponents 4.2 to 1.3 per night, a stark contrast to an Islanders team that’s just 5-4-1 in that span and only 2-3-1 on this seven-game homestand despite Tuesday’s morale-boosting 2-1 win over Tampa Bay. With Colorado essentially at full health and no injuries listed, the talent gap is widened by the Islanders’ losses of Kyle Palmieri (torn ACL) and Jean-Gabriel Pageau (upper body), which strip away a proven finisher and a key matchup center from Patrick Roy’s forward group. MacKinnon’s 26 points in 22 career games against the Islanders and Cale Makar’s 16 points in 11 meetings underscore how consistently Colorado’s stars have solved this matchup, and even Ilya Sorokin’s strong .918 save percentage in seven career games vs the Avs has only translated to a 2-3-2 record. Add in that Colorado is 17-0-4 when scoring at least three goals this season and already handled New York 4-1 in Denver last month, and the Avalanche moneyline at -195 profiles as a high-probability but moderately juiced side, worthy of an A- grade for win likelihood with only decent value at this price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:35am

The total of 6 looks like a tug-of-war between Colorado’s overwhelming offensive ceiling and the Islanders’ defensive structure behind Sorokin, but the recent form tilts slightly toward the Over at -115 despite New York’s low-event tendencies. Colorado has been relentless during its 9-0-1 stretch, averaging 4.2 goals and generating sustained pressure from a deep forward group that now includes Brock Nelson as an additional scoring center, and they already put four past the Isles in their 4-1 win in Denver last month. New York’s last 10 games have been tighter – just 2.0 goals for and 1.8 against per outing – yet those numbers have come with Palmieri and Pageau dropping out of the lineup, forcing the Isles to lean even harder on their top-six and potentially opening things up if they’re chasing against this Avalanche attack. Sorokin’s track record against Colorado (2.95 GAA and .918 save percentage in seven games) suggests he’ll make his share of stops, but the Avs’ ability to roll multiple scoring lines and a power play keyed by MacKinnon and Makar still points toward a 4-2 or 5-2 type script that nudges this number over rather than under. With respectable but not overwhelming edge given Sorokin’s potential to steal one, the Over 6 at -115 earns a B- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:35am

For the puckline, Colorado -1.5 at 135 is a classic case of trusting sustained dominance over the Islanders’ knack for keeping games tight, and it hinges heavily on how often the Avalanche can break through Sorokin early. New York is an impressive 8-2-0 in one-goal games this season and typically leans into Roy’s structured, shot-blocking system, but without Palmieri and Pageau their forward depth is thin, and that matters against a Colorado group that has been turning territorial advantages into multi-goal results throughout its 19-1-6 start. The first meeting was a 4-1 Avalanche win in Denver, and historically MacKinnon (10 goals, 16 assists in 22 games vs the Isles) and Makar (3 goals, 13 assists in 11 games against them) have repeatedly driven offense against this opponent, while Brock Nelson’s familiarity from years on the other side gives Colorado an extra weapon in exploiting matchups down the middle. Sorokin’s career numbers vs the Avs are admirable, but a 2-3-2 record despite a .918 save percentage shows how often he’s been hung out to dry, and if this one tilts in shot volume the way recent Avalanche games have, the path to another two-plus-goal margin is clear enough to warrant a B grade on the puckline at a plus-money style price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 04/12/2025 09:35am