Cavaliers vs Spurs

San Antonio's 23-8 start, top-10 offense and defense, and scorching 9-1 form over its last 10 before the Utah loss snapped an eight-game streak make the Spurs the side I want on the moneyline at -157 against a 17-16 Cavaliers team that is 4-6 in its last 10 and was just held to 100 in a 17-point loss at Houston. With Cleveland still missing Max Strus and Larry Nance Jr. while San Antonio at least has a chance to get De'Aaron Fox back from his minor adductor issue, the Spurs project as the healthier, deeper rotation around Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson. The Cavs do have upset equity thanks to Donovan Mitchell’s 30-point-per-game scoring and his history of big nights versus San Antonio, including 28 in the 130-117 win on December 5 and last season’s 29-point, 14-assist clinic feeding Jarrett Allen, but their leaky 21st-ranked scoring defense traveling into a Spurs building where the home side has won over 80% of its games tilts the probabilities toward the favorite. Laying -157 implies about a 61% break-even win rate; with San Antonio more like a mid-60s proposition in my numbers, the edge is real but not massive, so this moneyline position on the Spurs earns a B+ grade for solid likelihood and decent, if not spectacular, long-term value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/12/2025 09:58

Donovan Mitchell and Victor Wembanyama lead two top-10 offenses that both hover around 120 points per game, yet the 240.5 total sits a few points above what their season-long scoring and efficiency profiles (roughly 120 for, 114–118 against) would normally project. The earlier 130-117 Cavs win sailed to 247 combined points, but that game in Cleveland featured a huge third-quarter shooting barrage and a healthier Spurs backcourt, while this rematch brings a more locked-in San Antonio defense plus Fox still nursing that adductor. With Cleveland down a key floor-spacer in Strus and likely leaning on more half-court creation from Mitchell and Darius Garland, and with Wembanyama’s rim protection steering drives into tougher finishes, there’s a realistic path to both teams landing more in the mid-110s than the 120s. At essentially even money on Under 240.5 (-101), the number is high enough to justify a play but still exposed to elite shot-making variance from both sides, so I grade this total a B: a worthwhile edge, but not strong enough to warrant a large stake. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/12/2025 09:58

Cleveland’s 4-6 mark in its last 10, with recent double-digit setbacks and signs of defensive slippage, underlines how fragile this team can look on the road when Mitchell has to carry so much of the shot creation and Strus is unavailable to stretch the floor. San Antonio, by contrast, brings a healthy positive net rating, a balanced profile that ranks top 10 in both offense and defense, and an imposing home résumé at Frost Bank Center, where it has won more than 80% of its games behind Wembanyama’s roughly 24-and-11 production and an increasingly confident backcourt led by Fox and Stephon Castle. The Cavaliers did cover with ease in the earlier 130-117 home win, but shifting to San Antonio and facing a more integrated Spurs front line makes it less likely that another one-quarter avalanche from role players like Jaylon Tyson swings the margin that dramatically. With the spread sitting at a relatively short -4, backing San Antonio Spurs -4 (-101) aligns with my moneyline lean and offers slightly better theoretical value than laying the steeper price straight up, earning a solid B grade for combining a good chance of a two-possession win with a fair return on investment. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/12/2025 09:58