Cavs vs 76ers

Joel Embiid and the 76ers get a prime bounce-back spot at home after being blown out by Cleveland in their last meeting, with Philly still 6-4 over its past 10 and sitting fifth in the East while the Cavs are also 6-4 and seventh. With Darius Garland, Max Strus, Sam Merrill and Dean Wade all ruled out, Cleveland is suddenly thin in ball-handling and spacing around Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, whereas Embiid and Paul George are listed as probable and should rejoin Tyrese Maxey in a nearly full-strength Sixers core. Cleveland has taken the first two games of the season series behind monster nights from Mitchell and Jarrett Allen, but that dominance came with a healthier Cavs backcourt and, in November, an Embiid rest game; this time, Philly’s size and physicality inside should look very different. Given the swing in health, the home court at Xfinity Mobile Arena, and the playoff tiebreaker implications between two tightly packed mid-seeds, laying the short -125 moneyline on Philadelphia feels like the right side despite the Cavs’ recent success. I’d grade this 76ers moneyline pick a B+ for a solid edge rooted in injury disparity and home-court motivation, but with some volatility because Mitchell can still steal a game on his own. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 09:40

Donovan Mitchell's Cavaliers have been living in high-scoring environments, averaging just under 120 points per game over their last 10 while allowing roughly 116, and the Sixers are right there with them offensively at about 119 scored and 117 allowed in the same stretch. Both recent head-to-heads involving this core have cleared this 236.5 total comfortably — a 132-121 shootout in Cleveland last season when Mitchell dropped 46, and this year’s 133-107 Cavs win in Philly — and neither team has consistently solved the other’s primary creators like Mitchell, Maxey and Embiid when he’s active. Even with Garland sidelined, Cleveland’s offense still leans into early-clock threes and Mitchell-led pick-and-rolls, while Philadelphia under Nick Nurse pushes pace, attacks the offensive glass with bigs like Embiid and Andre Drummond, and generates free throws in bunches, all of which inflate possessions and scoring. Given those trends, the playoff-race urgency in this mini-series rematch, and the even-money price on the Over compared with the juiced Under, I like Over 236.5 at +100 and would grade it a B: a lofty number, but backed by sustained scoring and matchup history. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 09:40

Tyrese Maxey and the Sixers look more appealing against the spread than Cleveland because Philadelphia’s core is intact while the Cavs are down multiple rotation pieces, forcing deeper minutes for guards like Craig Porter Jr. and Lonzo Ball alongside Mitchell. In this two-game set in Philly, the first matchup turned into a lopsided loss for the Sixers, but that kind of blowout gives Nick Nurse a clear adjustment tape, and this group already used the second leg of a similar home-and-home against Toronto earlier in the season to engineer a bounce-back win. With both teams packed tightly in the middle of the East and every head-to-head tiebreaker mattering, I expect a sharper defensive effort from Paul George, VJ Edgecombe and the Sixers’ wings on Mitchell, plus cleaner late-game offense from a Maxey–Embiid hub than from a Garland-less Cavs unit that can stagnate when Mitchell is forced into tough pull-ups. Since a 1.5-point spread essentially mirrors the moneyline here, I’m comfortable taking Philadelphia -1.5 at -110 and grading it a B: slightly higher variance than the straight moneyline, but better payoff if the Sixers convert their motivation and health edge into a multi-possession win. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 09:40