Cavaliers vs Knicks

Jalen Brunson and the Knicks have been a wagon at home, riding a 20-8 overall mark with elite efficiency and a 14-2 record at Madison Square Garden, while Cleveland limps in at 16-14 despite a modest two-game surge and will likely be without Evan Mobley plus key depth pieces like Max Strus and Larry Nance Jr. on the road. With New York’s starting five of Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson intact, the Knicks’ +7-ish point differential, recent 12-3 heater, and Brunson’s history of carving up Cleveland (around 24 points per game in their 2023 first-round series) stack up against a Cavs team that still leans heavily on Donovan Mitchell and a banged-up Darius Garland. Add in that market consensus and ESPN’s BPI lean toward New York in this Christmas spot, and Knicks -210 on the moneyline profiles as a high-confidence play, even if the juice dulls the payout; I’d grade this bet an A- for likelihood with moderate but steady value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 25/12/2025 09:37am

Donovan Mitchell’s scoring load and the Knicks’ top-two offense push this total skyward, but with Cleveland missing Mobley and multiple rotation pieces, plus the early noon tip, 239 still sits a touch high relative to how these teams usually land. The Cavs’ games are averaging several points below this number, the Knicks are holding opponents around the low-110s behind a physical front line, and Cleveland’s recent skid before its two-game bounce-back was driven as much by shooting variance as by pace, suggesting some regression toward tighter defensive games in higher-leverage spots like Christmas at MSG. While some projection models lean slightly over the market and New York’s recent hot stretch has produced a few shootouts, the combination of Cleveland’s thinner offense, the possibility of Brunson and Brown throttling tempo in a game they’re favored to control, and a historically intense Cavs–Knicks matchup points me toward the Under 239, which I’ll grade a B given solid but not overwhelming edge and standard -110 pricing. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 25/12/2025 09:37am

Evan Mobley’s absence leaves Jarrett Allen exposed against Karl-Anthony Towns and a wave of aggressive Knicks wings, which is a big reason to shade toward New York -5.5 at home, especially with Cleveland only recently snapping a losing stretch while the Knicks have gone 12-3 over the same window and own one of the league’s best home-court records. New York’s season-long profile—top-tier net rating, roughly +7 point differential, 14-2 at MSG, and a strong record when laying mid-sized favorite numbers—contrasts with a Cavs team that’s around .500, just 1–2 as a moneyline underdog, and heavily dependent on Mitchell to keep them within a possession late. Factor in Brunson’s history of outplaying Cleveland in the 2023 playoffs, current momentum skewing toward New York despite a one-game skid, and consensus markets hanging a similar -5.5/-6 spread across books, and Knicks -5.5 projects as a solid position with good upside; I’d grade this bet a B+ for a strong likelihood of cashing and a fair return at -114. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 25/12/2025 09:37am