Cavaliers vs Pacers

Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers come into Indianapolis on a three-game skid, but against a 4-16 Pacers team missing Tyrese Haliburton for the season plus key rotation pieces like Obi Toppin and Aaron Nesmith, Cleveland’s overall depth and top-end shot creation still give them the cleaner path to a win. Even without Jarrett Allen, Max Strus and several rotation guards, the Cavs have leaned on Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Darius Garland to stay competitive, and they already handled this Pacers group 120-109 in Cleveland on November 21 behind 32 points from Mitchell and a strong Mobley interior showing. Indiana has found a little momentum with Pascal Siakam driving a two-game win streak, but the lack of primary playmaking and thin backcourt for this matchup should show up over 48 minutes against a Cavaliers defense that travels. At -238, the straight moneyline is more about reliability than return, so this profiles as a solid but not spectacular value play, best suited for parlays or larger bankrolls—Grade B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/12/2025 09:40am

Pascal Siakam’s recent surge has been vital for Indiana, but with Haliburton out and a half-dozen guards and wings on the injury report, the Pacers’ offense has slowed into more grind-it-out possessions, as shown by totals of 205 and 204 points in their last two wins over the Wizards and Bulls—well below this 234 number. Cleveland’s last three games have landed at 209, 253 and 232 total points, but that spike in Atlanta came before Jarrett Allen was ruled out; with Allen, Strus and key spacing pieces sidelined, the Cavs’ best path here is through Mobley-led defense and a more controlled pace rather than trading shots in the 120s. The recent head-to-head in Cleveland finished at 229 despite both sides shooting well, and with even more offensive talent missing on both rosters tonight, the market total sitting at 234 looks a touch inflated. I’m siding with the Under 234 at -105 as a strong but not lock-level position—Grade B+. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/12/2025 09:40am

Pascal Siakam and the Pacers have quietly started to punch back at home, following a brutal 2-16 stretch with consecutive wins by 33 over Washington and by two over Chicago, and that improved form matters when you’re catching +6.5 in your own building. Cleveland has clearly been the better team overall, but they enter on a three-game losing streak, are down Jarrett Allen, Max Strus and multiple rotation guards, and already needed a big Mitchell night and home-court whistle to win by 11 in the first meeting—now they lay a larger number on the road against a Pacers squad that’s leaning into heavy Siakam usage plus steady guard play from Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell. Indiana’s injury list is long, yet their recent margins (a two-point loss in Toronto followed by those two home wins) suggest they’re competing harder than their record implies, while the shorthanded Cavs are not in ideal shape to run away and hide. I’ll grab Indiana +6.5 at -107, expecting Cleveland to escape with a win but not necessarily a cover—Grade B-. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/12/2025 09:40am