Bengals vs Bills

Buffalo comes in having won three of its last five and fresh off a 26-7 domination of Pittsburgh, while Cincinnati just snapped a four-game skid with Joe Burrow’s return in that 32-14 Thanksgiving upset of Baltimore, so both sides carry very different kinds of momentum into this one. With Trey Hendrickson unlikely to go and several depth pieces banged up, the Bengals’ pass rush projects to be diminished, whereas Buffalo’s own defensive front is also thinned by injuries to Joey Bosa, A.J. Epenesa and linebacker Terrel Bernard, nudging this matchup toward whichever quarterback handles the elements better. The forecast calls for temperatures around freezing with clouds and snow showers developing, which generally favors the more established outdoor offense and downhill run game that just rode James Cook for 144 yards in Pittsburgh. Even with Burrow’s toe still managed by a protective plate and Cincinnati 3-1 in the last four head-to-heads, including that playoff win in this stadium, Josh Allen’s current MVP-level form, his dual-threat red-zone dominance, and Buffalo’s 8-4 standing with roughly 90% playoff odds make the Bills the likelier side to simply find a way at home. Add in that Cincinnati is still a long shot needing essentially a perfect finish just to stay alive, and laying the juice on Buffalo’s moneyline is the safer, if not spectacularly priced, path, so the recommendation is Bills -270 on the moneyline at a B+ confidence grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 11:32am

Recent form points to volatility on both sides, with Cincinnati alternating wild shootouts and last week’s opportunistic effort in Baltimore, while Buffalo has mixed explosive wins with flat road outings, but the shared theme is inconsistency rather than sustained track-meet football. Key defensive injuries—Hendrickson for the Bengals, plus Bosa, Epenesa and Bernard for the Bills—may suggest points, yet they’re just as likely to encourage both coaching staffs to shorten the game with heavier rushing volumes behind Cook and an ascendant Chase Brown instead of exposing their quarterbacks to extended dropbacks behind compromised fronts. Layer in Orchard Park’s December reality of sub-30-degree temperatures, potential snow and a swirling stadium that traditionally makes the ball harder to spin, and it becomes tougher for both passing attacks to fully justify a total sitting in the mid-50s. Burrow is still playing through his turf toe issue, Cincinnati leaned on field goals in his return, and high-leverage playoff implications for an 8-4 Bills team and a 4-8 Bengals club clinging to faint hope both point toward more conservative fourth-down and red-zone choices than the number implies. Given that combination of streaky offenses, winter weather, and playoff-pressure tendencies, the value leans to the Under 53.5 at -111, graded a B with recognition that elite quarterback talent always keeps the ceiling high. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 11:32am

Against the spread, the contrast between a Bills team that has alternated convincing wins and disappointing losses over its last five and a Bengals squad that just jolted itself awake in Baltimore makes this number especially interesting, because Cincinnati’s underlying profile with a now-healthy Burrow is very different from the 1-7 slide they endured without him. While Hendrickson’s expected absence dings the Bengals’ defense, the likely return of Tee Higgins opposite Ja’Marr Chase and Brown’s six-game streak of 100-plus scrimmage yards help restore the offensive firepower that has already produced a convincing playoff win in this building, and Burrow’s prior 242-yard, 2-TD, zero-INT performance here suggests he’s comfortable handling both the Bills and the elements. On the other side, Buffalo’s defense is missing multiple edge rushers and a starting linebacker, which reduces its ability to consistently heat up Burrow and increases the odds of sustained Bengals drives that chew clock and keep this within one score, especially in a cold, possibly snowy, outdoor setting that naturally suppresses margin. Allen’s 2025 turnover tally—double-digit interceptions plus fumbles—adds backdoor-cover variance to any favorite role, and in a game where Buffalo’s primary focus is preserving its strong playoff odds with a win more than running up the score, that 5.5-point cushion on a desperate 4-8 Cincinnati side is appealing. Expect Buffalo to be slightly more likely to escape with the outright victory, but Cincinnati +5.5 at -108 is the preferred against-the-spread position at a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 11:32am