Bengals vs Ravens

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens roll into this one on a five-game surge, while the Bengals limp in on a two-game slide and are only just getting Joe Burrow back from his long turf-toe layoff, during which Cincinnati went 1-8 and fell to 3-8 overall. With Burrow reportedly starting on a short week and likely carrying some rust, the Bengals also have to overcome major absences like Tee Higgins on the perimeter and Trey Hendrickson off the edge, thinning both their explosive-play potential and pass rush in a must-win spot for their faint playoff hopes. Baltimore’s offense, now built around Derrick Henry’s heavy workload alongside Jackson, matches up directly against a Bengals front that has been gashed on the ground all season, while the Ravens’ recent defensive form has held opponents in check even as their own front seven battles injuries. Add in that Baltimore has swept the last two regular-season series and rides a multi-game streak over Cincinnati in this rivalry, plus the edge of a raucous home crowd with the division race tightening, and the chalky moneyline still grades out as the safest angle, even if the price makes it more of a parlay anchor than a standalone play. I’m backing the Ravens on the moneyline at -345 with an A- grade for confidence versus payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 27/11/2025 10:06am

Even with Burrow back and memories of last year’s shootouts still fresh, the current versions of these teams quietly tilt this total toward the under, as the Ravens have leaned into a Henry-led, clock-chewing ground game while their defense has held recent opponents to the mid-teens. Cincinnati’s defense has leaked explosive runs and points all year, but that same weakness encourages Baltimore to stay run-heavy rather than chase another 60-minute track meet, naturally suppressing total possessions. On the Bengals’ side, Burrow is returning from a long injury layoff without Higgins and with multiple other offensive pieces banged up, putting even more pressure on Ja’Marr Chase and tight end usage against a Ravens secondary that has handled most receivers well outside of Chase’s monster 2024 outings. Layer in Baltimore’s current dominance and comfort playing from ahead plus the fact that both quarterbacks have navigated lower-body issues this season, encouraging a slightly more conservative approach than their fireworks-laden rivalry history suggests, and 52 looks a touch high unless the Bengals’ offense instantly clicks back to peak form. I’ll shade to Under 52 at -116 with a B grade, acknowledging the risk that late-game heroics or short fields could still push this into the low 50s. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 27/11/2025 10:06am

While the Ravens are the rightful favorites to win outright, the full touchdown on the spread becomes more interesting now that Burrow is back and reunited with Chase against a secondary he has lit up historically, including multiple 400-plus-yard, multi-touchdown efforts in recent seasons even when Baltimore escaped with one-score wins. The Ravens have been covering numbers like this lately on the strength of their defense and run game, but that surge largely came against backup-level quarterbacks, and their own front seven is missing multiple contributors at linebacker and along the line, which could matter in the fourth quarter if fatigue sets in and Burrow is pressing. Cincinnati’s defense is a liability, especially versus the run, so a game script where Baltimore builds a solid lead is very live, yet Burrow’s high-volume passing profile and Chase’s track record of massive stat lines in this matchup make a late backdoor cover squarely in play. Given Baltimore’s better form and playoff leverage, I still expect them to control most of the night, but taking Bengals +7 at -103 gets the key number in a rivalry that has produced plenty of tight finishes recently, good enough for a B- grade on value and likelihood. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 27/11/2025 10:06am