Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs

With Connor Bedard and Nick Foligno both on injured reserve for Chicago, the Blackhawks roll into Toronto having dropped five of their last seven and each of their last two, including a 4-0 shutout to Detroit that underscored how punchless they can look without their young franchise center. Toronto has also lost two straight, but that skid came on home ice to a surging San Jose team in overtime and then an Edmonton squad that lit up a rookie-heavy Leafs crease, and it followed convincing wins over Florida, Carolina and Tampa that showed this roster — led by Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares — still carries significantly more top-end scoring than Chicago can match right now. Historically, Matthews, Nylander and Tavares have all produced at better than a point-per-game clip against the Blackhawks, while Spencer Knight’s strong season and solid head-to-head numbers versus Toronto are being undermined by a depleted Hawks lineup and porous recent team defense. With the Leafs’ active roster confirmed around that elite forward core and a possible boost if Joseph Woll is ready to return, Toronto’s home-ice edge and special-teams ceiling justify eating the steep price more than backing a road dog missing its best player; I’m on Maple Leafs -225 on the moneyline at a B+ grade for high win probability but only moderate value at this number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/12/2025 09:26am

Recent form and matchup dynamics lean me toward goals despite Chicago’s injury issues, as the Blackhawks have been involved in several high-total games lately — including 7- and 8-goal blowout losses on the road — while Toronto is coming off a 6-3 loss to Edmonton two nights after a 3-2 overtime game against San Jose, continuing a pattern of defensive volatility around an offense that can still hang crooked numbers at home. Even with Bedard out, Chicago’s current roster has enough skilled support pieces (Teuvo Teravainen, Tyler Bertuzzi, Andre Burakovsky and others) to capitalize if the Leafs’ blue line, still missing multiple regulars and potentially reintegrating Chris Tanev from injured reserve, continues to struggle with coverage and discipline. On the Toronto side, Matthews, Nylander and Tavares all own strong historical production versus Chicago, and they now face a penalty kill that has sagged during the Hawks’ recent 2-5 stretch, while the Leafs’ own goaltending picture — whether Dennis Hildeby gets another start after getting shelled by Edmonton or Joseph Woll returns from IR — adds uncertainty that favors offense over defense. Spencer Knight’s solid season numbers might temper things slightly, but given Chicago’s leaky team defense in front of him, Toronto’s depth scoring at home and how quickly games involving the Leafs have been tilting toward special-teams and track-meet stretches, I like Over 5.5 at -120 with a B grade for a reasonable blend of likelihood and payoff. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/12/2025 09:26am

The puckline is riskier than the moneyline, but the way these rosters and recent streaks line up makes Toronto -1.5 an appealing upside play, as Chicago has been blown out multiple times on the road during its current slump and still won’t have Bedard available to drive offense in response if they fall behind early. Spencer Knight has been excellent overall this season and has already logged one strong outing against Toronto, yet the Hawks’ injury-thinned lineup and tendency to sag defensively when chasing games leave them vulnerable to multi-goal defeats, especially against a Leafs team whose top six — Matthews, Nylander, Tavares and emerging contributors like Matthew Knies — has historically feasted on Chicago and now gets last change at home. Even if Joseph Woll is only just returning or the Leafs again lean on Hildeby and Artur Akhtyamov, Toronto’s territorial edge and power-play advantage against a Chicago group that has bled chances during its 2-5 run suggest that many of the Leafs’ wins in this spot will come by margin rather than in tight, low-event fashion. Factor in that Toronto is looking to snap a two-game skid in front of its own fans with a largely intact forward core and a defense that, while banged up, still features veterans like Morgan Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and I’m willing to lay the -1.5 at -118 with a B- grade, acknowledging the higher variance but also the stronger potential return compared to the straight moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/12/2025 09:26am