Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have ripped off five straight wins behind Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, averaging north of 34 points since Week 11, while the Bears arrive having won four of their last five but now face a step up in class on the road.([nbcsports.com](https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/nfl/news/bears-vs-49ers-prediction-odds-expert-picks-qb-matchup-injury-update-betting-trends-and-stats)) San Francisco’s home-field edge plus Purdy’s prior dominance against Chicago (325 yards, 2 TD, 145.4 rating in last year’s 38-13 win) give them a real matchup advantage over Williams, who was sacked seven times in that meeting.([statmuse.com](https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/brock-purdy-vs-bears?utm_source=openai)) Injury questions for key Bears weapons Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III, along with T.J. Edwards on defense, tilt things further toward a healthier 49ers core even with George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall listed as questionable.([nbcsports.com](https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/nfl/news/bears-vs-49ers-prediction-odds-expert-picks-qb-matchup-injury-update-betting-trends-and-stats)) Add in the playoff stakes—San Francisco chasing NFC seeding while Chicago tries to lock up the North—and the situational spot favors the home side enough that I’m willing to lay the -165, though the price keeps this at a B rather than an A-grade edge.([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/two-nfcs-best-face-off-when-49ers-host-bears--flm-2025-12-25/?utm_source=openai)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 11:59

Books have pushed this total to 52.5 because of San Francisco’s recent scoring binge, but season-long data and matchup context both lean slightly under that number. The Bears and 49ers combine to average just under the posted total, and only eight of their 30 games have cleared 52.5, with Chicago in particular playing more controlled, turnover-driven contests despite Caleb Williams’ breakout.([sportsbookreview.com](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/scores/nfl-football/matchup/359256?utm_source=openai)) In last year’s 38-13 matchup these teams still landed at 51 points despite a lopsided script and seven Chicago sacks allowed, and both defenses enter with strong fronts and multiple key pass-catchers on the injury report (Odunze, Burden, Kittle, Pearsall), all of which slightly suppresses explosive-play odds.([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/two-nfcs-best-face-off-when-49ers-host-bears--flm-2025-12-25/?utm_source=openai)) With playoff pressure encouraging Ben Johnson and Kyle Shanahan to lean on their run games and keep their quarterbacks relatively clean, I expect plenty of sustained drives but enough red-zone resistance to keep this below 53, making Under 52.5 at -110 an A- value play.([fanduel.com](https://www.fanduel.com/research/christian-mccaffrey-nfl-fantasy-week-17-vs-bears-2025?utm_source=openai)) Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 11:59

Against the spread, both teams have been profitable, but San Francisco’s 10-5 ATS mark and dominance as a short favorite, coupled with a five-game straight-up heater, point toward laying the field goal at home.([bleachernation.com](https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2025/12/25/49ers-vs-bears-best-bets-picks-and-prediction-dec-28/?utm_source=openai)) Purdy’s efficiency spike during this win streak and his prior torching of Chicago, combined with McCaffrey’s dual-threat workload, stress a Bears defense that has thrived on takeaways but showed some vulnerability when forced into extended coverage snaps.([nbcsports.com](https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/nfl/news/bears-vs-49ers-prediction-odds-expert-picks-qb-matchup-injury-update-betting-trends-and-stats)) Chicago’s recent success has been real, yet with its top two wideouts and a starting linebacker nursing injuries and the 49ers’ pass rush historically giving Williams trouble, it’s easier to envision San Francisco winning by a margin than it is a one-score Bears road upset.([nbcsports.com](https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/nfl/news/bears-vs-49ers-prediction-odds-expert-picks-qb-matchup-injury-update-betting-trends-and-stats)) Given the key number of three and slightly heavy -115 juice, this is a solid but not elite edge—graded a B—projecting a 49ers victory in the 27-20 type range. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 11:59