MLB

Cubs vs Pirates

September matinee pits playoff push against spoiler spirit—where does the value lie?

Chicago Cubs

Cubs (86-64) VS Pirates (65-86)

17/09/2025 | 12:35 ET | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

Pittsburgh Pirates
Moneyline Pick - Chicago Cubs (-160): B

Chicago brings sharper form and situational advantages into this divisional clash, led by a starter who has consistently dominated the opponent’s lineup. Their offense has been producing well, particularly in day settings, which offsets the challenge of facing Pittsburgh’s young starter. The Pirates’ lineup health concerns and recent bullpen workload only increase the risk of late breakdowns, while Chicago’s road success underscores their ability to perform away from Wrigley. With playoff stakes driving urgency, the Cubs appear better positioned to control both tempo and scoreboard.

From a betting perspective, this pick leans toward Chicago on the moneyline as the stronger play. The prediction is that Steele’s steady form and the Cubs’ balanced offense will prove decisive against a Pirates team limited by injuries and bullpen fatigue. A bet here reflects both statistical and situational edges, making the juice worth paying.

This prediction gets a B grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 17/09/2025 at 9:00am

Over/Under Pick - Under 8 (-110): B+

Both starters bring profiles that favor efficiency and soft contact, setting the stage for a low-scoring duel in a pitcher-friendly environment. Pittsburgh has struggled to produce against lefties, while Chicago is missing a key bat, trimming their offensive ceiling in a spot where runs will already be tough to generate. The weather adds another suppressive factor, and with both bullpens performing steadily this month, late-inning volatility is less of a concern. Altogether, the conditions strongly lean toward a quieter offensive script.

From a betting perspective, this pick favors the Under as the sharper angle. The prediction is that reliable pitching, park effects, and muted lineups combine to keep the game below the posted total. A bet here aligns with matchup dynamics and recent trends, making it the disciplined side.

This prediction gets a B+ grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 17/09/2025 at 9:01am

Spread Pick - Chicago Cubs, -1.5 (+105): B-

Chicago’s offense still carries enough balance and power to back their starter, even with one key bat sidelined. Their track record of converting wins into multi-run covers underscores the lineup’s ability to build separation when things click. Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled for consistency, especially against left-handed pitching, which makes it harder to counter if the Cubs strike first—a situation that’s been common in Steele’s recent outings. Add in a bullpen edge that can pressure late innings, and the pathway to a two-run win is clear, even if not guaranteed.

From a betting perspective, this pick leans toward Chicago on the run line as a value play. The prediction is that their combination of starter reliability, lineup pop, and bullpen steadiness will create enough cushion for a multi-run margin. Still, given the natural volatility of road favorites, confidence is capped at a mid-tier level.

This prediction gets a B- grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 17/09/2025 at 9:02am

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