MLB

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers

Burnes and Steele duel as October nerves tighten the screws

Chicago Cubs

Cubs (92-70) VS Brewers (97-65)

Oct 04, 2025 | 3:08 PM ET | American Family Field, Milwaukee

Milwaukee Brewers
Moneyline Pick - Milwaukee Brewers (-160): Grade B

Milwaukee enters this contest with both form and motivation on its side, powered by elite starting pitching and a bullpen that continues to dominate late innings. Their ace has historically handled this opponent well, and with the lineup back near full strength, the Brewers’ offense should provide enough support to sustain the momentum. Chicago, by contrast, comes in short-handed and struggling to string together quality at-bats, and even with a dependable starter on the mound, the absence of key bats limits its upside. With playoff seeding still on the line, Milwaukee’s focus and balance make them the more reliable play. This prediction leans on pitching pedigree, lineup health, and situational drive.

From a betting standpoint, the pick favors Milwaukee on the moneyline despite the heavier number. The Brewers’ combination of frontline pitching and bullpen stability gives them a clear edge, while Chicago’s offensive injuries and inconsistency make an upset less likely. With motivation intact and matchups aligning, backing the home side remains the sharper choice.

This prediction gets an B grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 10/04/2025 at 9:00am

Over/Under Pick - Under 7.5 (-120): Grade B+

Both rotations enter in top form, with each ace pitching to strong post-break numbers that set the tone for a low-scoring matchup. Neither lineup has been making much hard contact lately, and with both bullpens operating efficiently—especially Milwaukee’s late-game trio—scoring opportunities should remain limited throughout. Even in a ballpark known for favoring hitters, October tension and playoff-style management tend to suppress offense, as managers lean quickly on high-leverage arms. Add in recent head-to-head history trending under this total, and the setup points toward another quiet scoreboard. This prediction leans on pitching dominance, contact suppression, and postseason-like intensity.

From a betting perspective, the pick favors the Under, with run production expected to stay muted by form and context. Both sides possess shutdown relief depth and steady starters, reducing the likelihood of crooked innings. In games like this, every baserunner feels amplified, and that typically favors the lower number.

This prediction gets an B+ grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 10/04/2025 at 9:00am

Spread Pick - Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-170): Grade B

Chicago’s track record in run-line situations underscores its ability to keep games tight, and the pitching matchup supports that outlook again. Their starter’s command minimizes free passes, forcing Milwaukee to string together hits rather than relying on power, while the Cubs’ bullpen has the left-right flexibility to handle the Brewers’ lineup late. Offensively, Chicago has enough mid-order punch to generate late traffic, particularly against right-handed relievers who have been less consistent down the stretch. With recent losses coming mostly by single-run margins, the underdog profile fits another close finish. This prediction leans on control pitching, bullpen balance, and proven run-line resilience.

From a betting standpoint, the pick favors Chicago +1.5 as the sounder angle. Even if Milwaukee prevails behind its ace, the Cubs’ ability to grind through tight contests and produce situational offense keeps this spread well within reach. Given each club’s recent trends, the extra run offers meaningful protection without sacrificing much value.

This prediction gets a B grade. Odds and availability subject to change. Follow Shurzy on Instagram and Tiktok for more expert picks.

This bet was made on 10/04/2025 at 9:00am

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