Calgary Flames vs Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning hit home ice on a four-game win streak while the resurgent Flames arrive with three straight victories, but Tampa’s 13-7-2 profile and 7-5-0 home mark still look sturdier than Calgary’s 8-13-3 record and negative goal differential. Even with Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak and Ryan McDonagh on injured reserve and Brayden Point listed as day-to-day, Jon Cooper can lean on a healthy core of Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Anthony Cirelli and Andrei Vasilevskiy that just delivered a 3-0 home shutout of Philadelphia and has generally tilted play in this recent run. The matchup history is strongly in Tampa’s favor: the Lightning hold a 26-19-2 all-time edge on the Flames, including 14-9-1 at home, and they swept last year’s series 2-0 while outscoring Calgary 11-3, powered by Kucherov’s 7-20-27 in 20 career games vs the Flames and Vasilevskiy’s .940 save percentage in the 2024-25 meetings. Calgary’s three-game surge has featured multi-point nights from Nazem Kadri and big contributions from Blake Coleman and Matt Coronato in front of improving goaltending from Dustin Wolf, but the Flames still sit near the bottom of the league in goals for and power-play efficiency, now running into an elite Lightning penalty kill and a goaltender who just found his shutout groove. At a moneyline of -190, the implied win probability is around 65%; with Tampa’s form, historical edge and remaining top-end talent against a still-flawed Calgary roster missing pieces like Samuel Honzek and Zayne Parekh, I rate the Lightning’s true chances closer to the high-60s, making Tampa Bay -190 a solid favorite play at Grade A- for a reasonable balance of likelihood and return. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:26am

With Tampa Bay riding a four-game heater and Calgary on a three-game win streak, the 5.5 total with the Over at -125 sits in front of two teams that have been playing more open hockey than their reputations suggest. The Flames have scored 57 and allowed 71 in 24 games while the Lightning sit at 69 goals for and 60 against in 22, putting their combined scoring environment in the mid-fives, and betting data shows Calgary’s games have cleared 5.5 in roughly two-thirds of their outings while Tampa has reached or topped that mark in about half. Significant injuries on Tampa’s blue line — Hedman, Cernak and McDonagh all sidelined, plus depth hits like Pontus Holmberg — raise the risk of breakdowns in front of Vasilevskiy, while a less-than-100% Brayden Point can subtly push more offensive burden onto Kucherov and Guentzel, who shredded Calgary for 11 Lightning goals across two games last season. On the Flames’ side, Kadri is in the middle of a multi-game playmaking tear, Coleman just hit the 300-point plateau while chipping in key scoring, and Wolf owns a 3.02 GAA behind a team that quietly drives play well at five-on-five but still bleeds chances and sits bottom tier in finishing and power-play conversion. Given that both clubs are trending up offensively, that their combined goals allowed per game hover around 5.7, and that Calgary in particular has been an Over-friendly team, I lean to Over 5.5 at -125 with a Grade B: the juice trims the edge, but recent form, defensive injuries and historical scoring in this matchup point to six or more goals often enough to justify the price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:26am

With the Lightning on four straight wins and the Flames on three, the puckline is dealing Tampa -1.5 at -143 and Calgary +1.5 at -170, and those streaks — plus Tampa’s injury list and Calgary’s recent scoring spike — tilt me toward taking the goal and a half with the underdog. Tampa has the firepower to blow teams out, but playing without Hedman, Cernak and McDonagh on the back end while Point is a game-time question tends to compress margins, particularly against a Flames team whose top six of Kadri, Huberdeau, Coronato and Coleman has finally found some rhythm. Calgary has quietly been a respectable puckline team overall (12-10 ATS and 6-7 on the road, with a 6-4 cover run in their last 10) and just covered easily in multi-goal wins over Buffalo and Vancouver and a shootout victory over Dallas, all with Wolf stabilizing in net and their five-on-five shot and high-danger chance numbers ranking near the top of the league. While Tampa swept last season’s series and hammered the Flames 11-3 on aggregate, those games came with a healthier Lightning blue line and a more disjointed Calgary roster; this version of the Flames is still flawed but more structured and comes in with confidence after three straight wins, making a one-goal loss or better a realistic outcome even if the moneyline still favors Tampa. With a low-ish total of 5.5 and the likelihood of a competitive contest between a banged-up favorite and an improving dog, Calgary +1.5 at -170 earns a Grade B-: the price is a bit rich, but it’s a defensible way to fade a full Tampa runaway while respecting the Lightning’s edge to win outright. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:26am