Flames vs Sharks

Calgary comes in quietly rolling at 4-1 over its last five, fresh off a tight OT road win in Los Angeles, while San Jose has surged to three wins in its last four behind late-game heroics from Toffoli, Celebrini and Wennberg. Calgary’s edge is how specifically it has solved San Jose: the Flames have taken 11 of the last 12 in the series and just blanked the Sharks 2-0 on November 13 behind Dustin Wolf, who has been excellent head-to-head and is now entrenched atop Calgary’s goalie depth chart on the current roster. With San Jose still missing Logan Couture and Vincent Desharnais and listing several depth pieces as day-to-day, the forward group is top-heavy, whereas the Flames can spread chances across Kadri, Huberdeau, Sharangovich and a suddenly productive supporting cast. The Sharks’ recent comeback wins also masked some shaky defensive play and heavy shot volume against; that’s a bad recipe against a Calgary team that has been driving play much better in December and already outshot San Jose badly in the last meeting. At -135, the price bakes in Calgary’s road status but still leaves enough value given the matchup history and current form, so I’m backing the Flames on the moneyline with a solid but not elite B-grade confidence. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/12/2025 09:53sm

Totals are trickier because Calgary’s last tilt with San Jose finished 2-0, but both teams are playing a much looser style lately: Flames games have averaged just over five and a half total goals across their last five, and Sharks games have spiked higher with recent 6-3 and 6-5 scorelines as their young skill core leans into offense-first hockey. San Jose’s current roster, headlined by Celebrini, Toffoli and Eklund, has enough finishing talent to push play even against a goaltender who has historically dominated them, while defensive injuries (Desharnais on IR, Mukhamadullin day-to-day) and a heavy workload on Askarov/Nedeljkovic have left the Sharks leaky in front of their own net. Calgary’s top six has also heated up, with Kadri, Coronato and Sharangovich all producing in recent wins, and their defense under Weegar and Andersson is jumping into the rush more often than early in the season. Given the market’s lean to the Over at -120, the teams’ recent scoring trends, and San Jose’s tendency to trade chances late even when trailing or leading, I like Over 5.5 with a B-grade: there’s real upside if the Sharks finally solve Wolf a bit, but his history against them keeps it shy of A-range confidence. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/12/2025 09:53sm

For the puckline, I’m swinging for plus-money rather than laying the steep price with San Jose +1.5, banking on Calgary’s pattern of multi-goal wins in this matchup and their recent form surge. The Flames have repeatedly stretched leads on the Sharks, including last spring’s 5-2 victory and this season’s 2-0 decision that was more lopsided territorially than the score, and Wolf’s track record against this opponent means that when Calgary does get in front, San Jose often struggles to claw back. However, the current Sharks roster is more dangerous than last year’s version: Celebrini has emerged as a true driver, Toffoli is coming off a four-point night in Pittsburgh, and San Jose is riding a modest winning streak at home into this game, all of which introduces more late-game variance and backdoor-cover risk on a -1.5. Add in Calgary’s occasional third-period wobbles and the fact that the teams are only about a third of the way into the season—so blowout urgency is lower—and this becomes a high-risk, high-reward angle that I only grade at C+: the payout at +196 is attractive if Calgary’s series dominance holds, but the probability of a one-goal Flames win is high enough that I’d keep this to smaller stake sizing. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/12/2025 09:53am