Flames vs Canadiens

With both clubs past the season’s midway point and points tightening the playoff race, Montreal’s combination of recent form and matchup edges makes the home side worth laying a moderate price on the moneyline at -150. The Canadiens have taken three of their last five, including high-leverage road wins in Carolina and Dallas, while Calgary rolls into town off back-to-back regulation losses after a brief surge, and still owns a poor 6-13-2 road mark. Key injuries are mostly on the margins—Calgary is missing depth center John Beecher (IR) and has backup goalie Devin Cooley listed day-to-day, while Montreal is without physical winger Josh Anderson (day-to-day) and depth pivot Jake Evans (IR)—leaving core pieces like Nazem Kadri, Blake Coleman, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield available on both confirmed active rosters and the game preview. Historical head-to-head trends lean subtly toward Calgary in net, with Dustin Wolf 3-0 lifetime against Montreal including last spring’s 26-save shutout, but skater-wise Montreal has tilted this year’s series after a 2-1 win in October and continues to drive efficient offense behind Suzuki, Caufield and a top-10 power play. Nazem Kadri’s long-term production versus the Canadiens (double-digit goals and solid shot volume) keeps Calgary dangerous, yet most projection models still shade Montreal’s win probability into the mid-60% range at home—comfortably above the roughly 60% implied by -150—justifying the favorite as a value-side lean rather than an auto-bet. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/01/2026 09:27.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401803029))

The total at 6 invites a look at how these teams are actually playing, and the recent blend of Montreal’s surge in scoring with league-average defensive numbers on both sides nudges this toward the Over at -125. The Canadiens enter averaging roughly 3.3 goals per game with a top-10 power play and have played some track meets on this road-heavy stretch—posting four or more goals in wins over Carolina and Dallas—while still allowing chances the other way. Calgary’s offense is more modest at around 2.6 goals per game, but their last five have produced totals of 6, 7, 6, 3 and 5 goals, and they’re now asking a travel-weary group coming off a 5-1 loss to Seattle and a 4-3 defeat to Nashville to contain a home attack that thrives on quick-strike transition and man-advantage looks. Goalie histories create some tension—Dustin Wolf has dominated Montreal in limited prior meetings and the Canadiens can roll with any of Samuel Montembeault, Jakub Dobes or Jacob Fowler—but Montreal’s recent finishing spike plus Calgary’s defensive wobble, especially on the penalty kill when stretched, points toward enough combined volume to clear 6 more often than not, with the push as a reasonable safety net. Given the volatile nature of NHL scoring and Wolf’s ceiling, it’s more of an edge than a slam dunk, but the Over 6 at -125 still grades out slightly better than the Under at this number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/01/2026 09:27.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401803029))

On the puckline, backing Montreal -1.5 at -150 is a higher-variance angle that leans into their home-ice scoring ceiling and Calgary’s road profile, but the price keeps it in smaller-stake territory. The Canadiens are only modestly above water at Bell Centre, yet when they do win lately it’s often with multi-goal separation fueled by a deep forward group (Suzuki, Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Oliver Kapanen) and an aggressive power play, while Calgary’s 6-13-2 road record reflects both scoring droughts and late-game cracks when chasing. Roster-wise, neither side is missing a true first-line driver—Beecher and Evans are depth pieces, Anderson’s absence mostly trims Montreal’s forechecking snarl rather than its finishing—which means the Habs still dress more high-end offense than the Flames can match over 60 minutes. Head-to-head, Montreal already owns a one-goal win in this season series, but Calgary’s prior success against the Canadiens came in a different game state when the Flames were defending a playoff spot rather than clawing from 14th in the West, and the current standings show a clear gap in five-on-five efficiency and goal differential in Montreal’s favor. The downside is obvious: Wolf’s history of stymieing Montreal and the general tightness of NHL scorelines make any -1.5 at a negative price risky, so this play leans on Montreal’s ability to tilt shot quality and special-teams chances enough to create empty-net or late insurance scenarios; the return is solid but not spectacular, so it gets only a C+ for risk-reward. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/01/2026 09:27.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401803029))