Blue Jackets vs Capitals

Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals have cooled slightly after an offensive explosion but are still 3-3 in their last six and coming off an 8-goal outburst in Montreal followed by a competitive loss to Tampa Bay, while Columbus has steadied to win three of its last five yet just got handled 5-2 by Winnipeg after a brief surge. With Boone Jenner on injured reserve for the Blue Jackets and Pierre-Luc Dubois shelved long term plus Nic Dowd banged up for Washington, both current ESPN rosters are missing important two-way forwards, but the Caps’ core of Ovechkin, Dylan Strome, John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun remains intact and driving play. The first meeting this season was a 5-1 Washington road win in Columbus, where Ovechkin and Carlson both scored and the Capitals controlled the third period, and Logan Thompson’s league-best 2.00 GAA and .920 save percentage at home give Washington a decisive edge over Jet Greaves despite his solid 2.72/.906 line for Columbus. Given current form, superior goaltending and star power that has historically produced against this opponent, I project Washington closer to a 63–65% favorite, so at 165 on the moneyline this is a modest but real edge on the home side; I grade Capitals 165 as an A- pick for probability with slightly above-average value, especially in parlays rather than as a heavy straight bet. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/11/2025 09:30am

Both teams’ recent streaks point more toward structured hockey than track meets: Washington has tightened defensively despite some gaudy scorelines, allowing an average of 2.47 goals per game on the season, while Columbus sits near league middle at 2.95 goals for and 3.20 against, with several of its recent contests (Rangers, Canadiens) decided in low-scoring, one-goal fashion. Key injuries remove finishing talent on both sides — Boone Jenner’s absence hurts Columbus’ bumper and net-front looks, and Pierre-Luc Dubois plus Nic Dowd being out trims Washington’s center depth and matchup flexibility — which should nudge coaching staffs toward shorter benches and more conservative usage of their top pairings. With Logan Thompson playing at an elite level and Greaves giving Columbus credible goaltending, and considering that the Caps’ offense has been boom-or-bust despite Ovechkin’s hat tricks, the median projection here skews closer to a 5–6 goal environment than the 7+ you’d need to clear 6.5 comfortably. Factoring in Washington’s weak power play (14.0%) against a Jackets PK that’s bad on paper but trending slightly better, I see enough defensive and goaltending upside to side with the market-shaded Under at 120, grading it a B+ pick: solid edge but vulnerable if Washington’s top unit strings together early power-play goals. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/11/2025 09:30am

Washington’s recent run features big blowouts mixed with tighter wins and losses, but the Jackets have generally kept games within a goal during their current 3-2 stretch, including a shootout win over Montreal and a narrow shootout loss to the Rangers, which suggests their defensive structure and goaltending are good enough to hang around even when out-talented. Boone Jenner’s injury removes some late-game scoring punch for Columbus, yet Adam Fantilli, Charlie Coyle and Kirill Marchenko are all driving offense from the current active roster, and Marchenko has already produced 22 points to keep the Jackets competitive against stronger teams; on the other side, Washington is missing Dubois and Dowd but still leans heavily on Ovechkin, Strome, Carlson and Chychrun, whose impact we already saw in that 5-1 Caps win in Columbus earlier this year. With Thompson likely to keep Washington from running away on the scoreboard and Greaves’ solid form giving Columbus a chance to avoid multi-goal collapses, my projection has the Jackets covering +1.5 significantly more often than the moneyline implies, though the 190 price is fairly rich and caps the value. I’m expecting a one-goal Washington home win more often than not, which makes Blue Jackets +1.5 at 190 a B-grade play — reasonable protection if you like the Caps to edge it but don’t fully trust them to repeat October’s blowout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/11/2025 09:30am