Blue Jackets vs Blues

Columbus rolls into St. Louis on a four-game heater and an overall 26-20-7 mark, while the Blues are 20-25-9 and just snapped a five-game skid with that 5-4 home win over Florida. Even with home ice and a rest edge after playing Thursday, St. Louis is badly thinned down the middle and on the wings: Robert Thomas, Pius Suter, Dylan Holloway and Nathan Walker are all on IR, chopping into a lineup that already owns a -52 goal differential, whereas Columbus’ key drivers like Boone Jenner, Adam Fantilli and Zach Werenski are active, with the Jackets’ blue line only missing depth pieces such as Brendan Smith and Miles Wood plus a likely-absent Dante Fabbro. In the matchup-specific file, Elvis Merzlikins is 2-1-1 lifetime vs the Blues with a 3.15 GAA and famously posted a 21-save 1-0 shutout in this building last year, while Jordan Kyrou has 5 goals and 3 assists in 9 career games against Columbus and is coming off a 3-point night against Florida, so neither side is likely to run away unchallenged. With the Jackets sitting on 59 points and firmly in the Eastern wild-card chase versus a Blues club stuck seventh in the Central with long-shot playoff odds, I’m comfortable tilting toward the hotter, healthier side at 100 despite the road back-to-back, grading Columbus on the moneyline as a B-level play for solid edge without being a slam dunk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/01/2026 09:40

Given how these rosters and trends line up, I lean toward goals in this spot despite some key offensive absences. Columbus is playing faster under Rick Bowness and comes in having scored 5, 8, 5 and 4 in its last four wins, pushing its season totals to 167 goals for and 174 against, while St. Louis sits at 135 for and 187 against, one of the worst differentials in the league; their recent 5-4 win over Florida was another reminder of how leaky the Blues’ defensive environment can be. The Blues’ forward group is still missing Thomas and Holloway, but Jimmy Snuggerud and Kyrou just combined for 4 goals and 5 points against the Panthers, and Columbus continues to lean on Werenski-driven offense and a Merzlikins/Greaves tandem that has been more good enough to win than lockdown. Factor in Columbus playing the second leg of a back-to-back, a Blues team that has gone 3-6-1 in its last 10 with several multi-goal losses, and both penalty kills ranking in the bottom tier, and the game script tilts toward special-teams chances and fatigue-driven breakdowns rather than a repeat of 1-0 or 3-2 grinders we’ve seen in some past meetings. At 6 flat, a 4-2 final is the main push risk, but with the market already shaded toward offense at -133, I still see enough probability of a 4-3 or higher scoreline to justify an Over position, grading it a B- because of the juice and the possibility that St. Louis’ injury-thinned center depth drags pace if it plays from ahead. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/01/2026 09:40

With how these teams profile, taking the extra goal and a half with Columbus is the safer way to express a Jackets edge, even if the moneyline is already attractive. St. Louis has played 31 of 54 games decided by a single goal or in overtime and owns that ugly -52 differential, while Columbus, despite the negative differential, has trended toward tight, competitive games against stronger opponents and already beat the Blues 3-2 earlier this season. Merzlikins’ history in this building—a 21-save shutout last year and a 2-1-1 career mark vs St. Louis—combined with a Columbus roster that still dresses its top scoring spine Jenner, Fantilli, Werenski, Marchenko against a Blues lineup missing Thomas, Suter, Holloway and Walker, makes it hard to project many realistic blowout scenarios for the home side unless goaltending completely collapses. The Jackets are on a four-game win streak and 8-2-0 in their last 10, while St. Louis is just 3-6-1 over its last 10 and only briefly stopped the bleeding against Florida, so even accounting for Columbus’ road back-to-back and potential starter rotation in net, I’d expect them to stay within a goal the vast majority of the time; that high hit rate but limited payout earns Blue Jackets +1.5 at -225 a B+ grade on the puckline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 31/01/2026 09:40