Blue Jackets vs Penguins

The Blue Jackets roll into Pittsburgh on a three-game heater under new coach Rick Bowness, while the Penguins just snapped a three-game skid with a 6-3 statement win over the Flyers to move to 22-14-10, so we’ve got one team riding momentum and the other trying to re-establish it. With Columbus still missing depth pieces like Miles Wood and Isac Lundestrom (plus Denton Mateychuk banged up) and Pittsburgh down Erik Karlsson and several depth forwards, both benches are thinner than ideal, but the Penguins’ core of Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Rust remains intact and active on the ESPN roster pages. Head-to-head, this has been a lopsided series: Pittsburgh has banked points in the vast majority of recent meetings, is 22-3-4 in its last 29 against Columbus, and Crosby has shredded the Jackets for 24 goals and 69 points in 48 career games, while Zach Werenski has respectable but less game-breaking numbers versus the Pens and Elvis Merzlikins owns a losing lifetime mark against Pittsburgh. With both clubs past the 41-game mark and in a crowded Metro playoff race, this is effectively a four-point swing game; the Pens sit ahead in the standings and their elite special teams (top-tier power play and strong penalty kill) versus Columbus’ weaker PK widen the gap further at home. At -125, I think Pittsburgh’s true win probability is a bit north of the implied number, so I’m backing the Penguins on the moneyline with a B+ grade for solid likelihood and decent value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:56.

Columbus’ three-game win streak has come with a noticeable offensive uptick, fueled by Werenski’s blue-line scoring, emerging threats like Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson, and steadier work from Merzlikins, while Pittsburgh just snapped a mini-slump by hanging six on Philadelphia and is 7-2-1 over its last 10, suggesting their attack is back in rhythm. Even with injuries on both blue lines (Mateychuk day-to-day for Columbus, Karlsson on IR for Pittsburgh), the key offensive weapons are active, and the Pens’ first unit featuring Crosby and Malkin is feasting on a Jackets penalty kill that sits in the bottom tier of the league. Statistically, these teams combine for a bit over six goals per game with Pittsburgh’s power play among the league’s best and Columbus’ defense still allowing north of three goals per night despite recent improvement, which pairs with the fact that all three meetings this season have gone to overtime to hint at another wide-open, chance-trading script. With both sides eyeing the playoff cutoff and needing regulation wins in-division, playing conservatively doesn’t really fit the context, and a third-period push is likely if either team trails. At a flat 6.5 with -118 on each side, I slightly favor offensive talent and special-teams edges over Merzlikins’ and Skinner/Silovs’ ability to completely lock things down, so I’ll grade Over 6.5 at B: a fair price with moderate edge rather than a slam dunk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:56.

Columbus’ current three-game surge and strong recent goaltending under Bowness argue for another tight one-goal game, especially since all three meetings this season have gone to overtime, but the broader profile still leans toward Pittsburgh having real blowout potential, particularly at PPG Paints Arena where the Jackets are just 2-18 in their last 20 trips. With the Blue Jackets missing secondary contributors like Wood and Lundestrom and nursing Mateychuk, their depth scoring and puck-moving from the back end are a bit compromised, while the Penguins, even without Karlsson, still roll out Crosby–Malkin–Rust–Rakell plus a mobile defense led by Letang and Graves that can stretch a tired Columbus group late. Historical and matchup data matter here: Pittsburgh has dominated this series (over 20 wins in their last 30 vs Columbus), Crosby’s production against the Jackets has been elite for years, and Merzlikins’ career record versus the Pens is underwater, all of which increase the chances that when Pittsburgh does win, it sometimes does so by margin rather than in coin-flip fashion. Given the playoff stakes for a Penguins team clinging to a top-three Metro spot versus a Jackets club chasing from below the line, I expect Dan Muse to lean heavily on his stars and push for two clean points in regulation, accepting empty-net risk the other way—exactly the game script that can turn a one-goal edge into a two-goal cover. Because recent meetings and Columbus’ improved form still cap the true blowout probability, this is a higher-variance angle but offers strong plus-money upside, so I’ll take Penguins -1.5 at +188 with a B- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:56.