Panthers vs Buccaneers

The Panthers enter at 8-8 with the division in their hands, while the Buccaneers limp in at 7-9 after dropping seven of their last eight, and that recent form matters when you layer in the injury sheet and quarterback play. Tampa still has Baker Mayfield under center, but he’s playing through shoulder issues and comes off a three-turnover outing against Miami, with a defense now missing key starters like Anthony Nelson and Jamel Dean and leaning on a pass rush that has faded down the stretch. Carolina just beat this same Bucs team 23-20 two weeks ago behind Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan, and Young has generally bounced back well after poor games this season, which pairs nicely with a Panthers defense that has already frustrated Mayfield once and now faces a banged-up Bucs offense. With the NFC South title and a home playoff game at stake, I’m willing to side with the more stable team and staff getting plus money, so the play is Carolina on the moneyline at +125, a B+ value grade given the road setting but clear momentum and matchup edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:30

Totals in late-season, high-stakes divisional games often hinge on pass protection, health, and whether either offense can consistently finish drives, and recent results for both teams point toward a grind rather than a shootout. The last Panthers-Bucs meeting landed 23-20 (43 points), and since then Tampa’s offense has stalled at 17 and 20 points in consecutive losses while Mayfield tries to gut it out behind a dinged-up line and supporting cast, whereas Carolina has scored 23 and 10 in its last two as Young’s volatility and a run-centric approach cap their ceiling. Both sides are carrying a lengthy injury report—Tampa with front-seven and secondary pieces plus a managed workload for Mike Evans, Carolina with multiple front-seven contributors and offensive role players—which favors longer drives, more field goals and red-zone stalls rather than explosive scoring. With the Bucs’ offense regressing, the Panthers leaning on Rico Dowdle and a more controlled passing script, and playoff pressure likely tightening fourth-quarter play-calling, I’m on Under 43.5 at -105 with an A- grade for its combination of matchup support and reasonable juice. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:30

Given Carolina already beat Tampa by three at home, now gets a rematch against a Buccaneers team that’s 1-7 over its last eight and dealing with a compromised defense, the full field-goal cushion on the Panthers is extremely attractive even if you respect the Bucs’ home field and desperation. Young doesn’t need to dominate for Carolina to cover; he just has to avoid the big mistake while leaning on McMillan against a secondary missing Jamel Dean and facing communication issues, and let a Panthers defense that just held Mayfield to modest numbers in Week 16 go after a quarterback still listed with a shoulder injury on a crowded Bucs report. With the NFC South title scenario giving Carolina multiple tiebreaker paths and Tampa needing both a win and outside help, the situational edge actually tilts slightly to the Panthers’ side, and their ability to run with Dowdle against an inconsistent Bucs front seven gives them a path to keep this inside a field goal even in a hostile environment. I’m taking Carolina +3 at -118 with an A- grade, prioritizing the key number and recent matchup data over Tampa’s preseason reputation. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 11:30