Hurricanes vs Penguins

Carolina rides a two-game win streak into PPG Paints Arena while Pittsburgh, fresh off a 7-3 win over Chicago that snapped a brutal stretch, has only recently steadied after an extended skid, so the current form still tilts slightly toward the road side at -130 on the moneyline. Significant injuries cut both ways: the Hurricanes are down core pieces Seth Jarvis and Jaccob Slavin, power-play catalyst Shayne Gostisbehere, and goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov, which forces a likely start for Frederik Andersen on the second night of a back-to-back, but the Penguins’ upside is capped as well with Evgeni Malkin on injured reserve and Erik Karlsson nursing a day-to-day issue that can undercut their transition game and top power-play unit. Historically, Sidney Crosby has feasted on Carolina with well over a point per game across more than 60 meetings, yet Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov have consistently driven offense against this opponent, and Pittsburgh’s current version is allowing more than three goals per night despite that elite power play, which is a concern against a Carolina team that tilts the ice at five-on-five and sits atop the Metro. Accounting for the Canes’ deeper forward group, stronger underlying goal differential and the fact that Pittsburgh’s recent mini-surge is coming off an eight-game slide, I project Carolina’s true win probability in the low 60s versus an implied mid-50s at -130, which makes the Hurricanes moneyline a modest but real value edge and earns this wager a B grade for likelihood and return. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/12/2025 09:27am

With four of Carolina’s last five and six of Pittsburgh’s last eight sailing past the number, and both teams coming in off multi-goal offensive efforts, recent scoring trends lean toward goals rather than a cagey Metro grind when the total is set at 6 with the over juiced to -120. Injuries nudge this matchup higher scoring: the Hurricanes’ blue line is missing shutdown anchor Jaccob Slavin and puck-mover Shayne Gostisbehere, they’ve lost Kochetkov for the season, and Andersen is trying to play his way out of an 0-5-2 stretch behind a group already piled up with man-games lost, while the Penguins are compensating for Malkin’s absence and several banged-up defensemen by leaning even harder on their stars and a top-tier power play. Historically, Crosby has piled up a big scoring line against Carolina and Svechnikov has produced regularly versus Pittsburgh, and when you combine those head-to-head trends with a top-10 Carolina offense, a top-three Pittsburgh power play, and goaltending questions on both sides after the Pens moved on from Tristan Jarry, it’s difficult to see both clubs staying under three goals often enough to justify a flat 6. I expect a high-event game that lands on 6 or more well north of 60% of the time, but the back-to-back spot for Carolina and the possibility of Andersen bouncing back keep a true shootout from being a lock, so Over 6 at -120 is a playable but slightly juice-heavy position that I’ll grade B-, reflecting decent win probability but only moderate value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/12/2025 09:27am

Carolina may be pushing for a third straight win and has taken seven of its last ten overall, but Pittsburgh’s profile — two victories in its last three after that eight-game nosedive and heavy usage of its top unit — still points to a lot of one-goal decisions, which makes Penguins +1.5 at -235 more appealing than chasing Hurricanes -1.5 at a big plus price. The same injuries that trim Carolina’s ceiling on the moneyline also reduce their blowout potential here: Jarvis and Slavin are out, Gostisbehere is sidelined, Kochetkov is done for the year, and Andersen’s recent 0-5-2 run suggests the Canes are more likely to grind out narrow wins than repeatedly run away from teams, while Pittsburgh, even without Malkin and with a patchwork defense, can rely on Crosby, Bryan Rust and a lethal power play to generate enough offense to stay inside a goal. Crosby’s long-term dominance against the Hurricanes and Svechnikov’s steady but not overwhelming output versus the Penguins both support a script in which Carolina’s deeper five-on-five game ekes out the result but the home side, in a building that still gives them a boost and in a game many projection models peg around 4-3 either way, covers the puckline a high percentage of the time. Because -235 is a hefty price that offers more safety than upside, I view Penguins +1.5 as a strong candidate for parlays or larger bankroll positions but only a moderate standalone edge, grading it a B- based on its high likelihood of cashing but limited monetary value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/12/2025 09:27am