Buffalo Sabres vs Winnipeg Jets

With Winnipeg on a two-game skid and six losses in its last seven, and still missing Connor Hellebuyck on injured reserve, Buffalo’s plus-money moneyline is attractive despite the Sabres’ own recent stumbles. The Jets were hammered 5-1 in Buffalo just a few days ago in a game where Josh Norris erupted for three points and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen turned aside nearly everything, underscoring how vulnerable Winnipeg looks when it has to lean on Eric Comrie and Thomas Milic instead of its Vezina-caliber starter. Buffalo is hardly flawless—they were blanked by New Jersey and then outscored 5-2 in Philadelphia—but their top-end skill with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, plus a Jets blue line that could still be without Haydn Fleury and is adjusting around Josh Morrissey, tilts the matchup toward the underdog when you bake in the price. With the Jets’ form and goaltending uncertainty versus a Sabres group that’s already shown it can dictate this specific matchup, Buffalo at 115 is a solid value play, but road volatility and defensive lapses keep it at a B rather than higher. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:25am

The recent profiles of both clubs lean toward a high-event rematch, pushing me to the Over 6.5 at 100. Buffalo has been bleeding chances and goals—getting shut out 5-0 by New Jersey and then allowing five more in Philadelphia—yet they still flashed plenty of offense in the 5-1 win over Winnipeg, where Norris, Bowen Byram and Jason Zucker drove the scoring. On the other side, the Jets’ defensive results have cratered without Hellebuyck, giving up four or more in multiple recent outings, and they’ve needed Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele (who has historically produced well against Buffalo) to trade chances just to stay in games. With both teams coming in off defensive letdowns, Buffalo’s aggressive transition game, Winnipeg’s offensive weapons still humming, and neither side in shutdown form on the second leg of a busy week, seven or more total goals is a realistic target, though the market’s shading toward the under and Buffalo’s occasional no-show nights keep this to a B- rather than a stronger endorsement. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:25am

Given how uneven Winnipeg’s results have been during this slump, Buffalo +1.5 at -220 profiles as safer but heavily taxed, warranting only a C+. The Jets have dropped six of their last seven, including that 5-1 loss in Buffalo and several multi-goal defeats, but when they do manage to win—as in their recent 5-2 victory at Nashville—they’re still capable of stretching the margin, which is a real risk against a Sabres team that has been blown out a few times in the past week. Buffalo’s edge in goal for this matchup, with Luukkonen in better form than Comrie or Milic, and their ability to roll scoring from Thompson, Tuch, and now a healthy Norris, suggests they should be live to keep this within a goal or even sweep the back-to-back in the series. However, the combination of road defensive fragility, Winnipeg’s strong home top line with Connor and Scheifele, and the steep price on the +1.5 means the bet is more about likelihood than value—very reasonable to cash, but not paying enough to grade higher than a C+. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 05/12/2025 09:25am