Sabres vs Blues

Tage Thompson and the Buffalo Sabres roll into St. Louis on an eight-game heater, having just stacked road and home wins behind a top-heavy offense, a revived blue line and an elite penalty kill that’s up near the top of the league, while the Blues are merely 3-2 in their last five and still under .500 overall despite a small recent push. St. Louis’ center depth is thinned by Pius Suter listed out and Nick Bjugstad and Dylan Holloway on injured reserve, which puts more burden on Robert Thomas and Brayden Schenn at five-on-five, whereas Buffalo’s injury list — Rasmus Dahlin day-to-day plus Conor Timmins, Colten Ellis and Jason Zucker on IR — is annoying but hasn’t disrupted the Thompson–Dahlin–Alex Tuch core that’s been driving results. The big counterpoint is matchup history: Joel Hofer blanked Buffalo 3-0 in their earlier meeting this season and owns a perfect line in one career start vs the Sabres, and last year’s December 29 meeting went Buffalo’s way 4-2 with Thompson and Zucker both on the scoresheet, so there’s no clear psychological edge either way. Given Buffalo’s superior goal differential profile (over three goals for per game and slightly better goals-against than St. Louis), special-teams advantage against a mediocre Blues PK, and the way their forecheck has overwhelmed recent opponents, the Sabres at -115 still look like the right side even on the road, and I’d grade this moneyline play an A- for a strong likelihood of cashing at a modest but fair price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/12/2025 09:32

With Buffalo’s current stretch producing multi-goal nights from multiple lines and defensemen like Bowen Byram jumping into the rush, this matchup projects faster and looser than the 3-0 grinder we saw in their first meeting, especially with the Sabres averaging just over three goals per game and the Blues allowing north of three and a third per night. St. Louis can still score by committee through Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, Justin Faulk and Jordan Kyrou, and they’ve recently played in a string of 3-2, 4-1 and 6-2 type games that show how leaky their own structure can be when pushed, which plays into Buffalo’s transition-heavy style. The injury picture slightly cuts both ways — Suter and Bjugstad being out dings the Blues’ depth offense, but the Sabres being without Conor Timmins and possibly managing Dahlin’s workload plus earlier concussion issues for Colten Ellis mean their defensive rotations and goaltending are hardly airtight either, and a strong penalty kill doesn’t help an Over if you’re constantly forcing teams into your end at five-on-five. Market respect is already baked in with the Over juiced to -130, so while I do lean to goals with Buffalo’s current form and St. Louis’ defensive numbers, the price knocks this down to a B rather than a premium edge because you’re paying up for what the recent data already screams. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/12/2025 09:32

Leaning into the Sabres’ moneyline edge, the aggressive way to attack this matchup is Buffalo -1.5 at 210, banking on their ability to turn games into track meets and pull away late against a Blues team that has repeatedly played one-goal grinders but owns bottom-third goals-for and goals-against rates and is missing multiple regular forwards. During this eight-game surge the Sabres have already shown multi-goal ceiling with blowouts of teams like Chicago and Winnipeg plus comfortable wins over Edmonton and Boston, and that kind of top-end scoring combined with a strong penalty kill creates ideal conditions for an empty-net cover if they’re nursing a lead in the final minutes. The risk is obvious: St. Louis has a history of hanging around at home with tight 3-2 and 2-1 results, Joel Hofer has already shut out Buffalo once this season, and Jordan Kyrou’s career production versus the Sabres means the Blues still have enough pop to keep things within a goal more often than not, so this isn’t close to a “safe” wager. Because the plus-money return at 210 is hefty enough to compensate for the volatility and still aligns with Buffalo’s current dominance and depth advantages over an injury-hit St. Louis lineup, I’ll give the Sabres -1.5 puckline a B- as a high-risk, high-reward angle that pairs best if you already like their side on the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 29/12/2025 09:32