Bills vs Steelers

The Bills come in off a frustrating road loss in Houston while the Steelers are reeling from a tight defeat in Chicago, setting up a must-have swing game for AFC playoff positioning where Josh Allen’s steady track record against Pittsburgh and Aaron Rodgers’ health loom large. With Rodgers set to return from a fractured left wrist and play behind a line missing starting left tackle Broderick Jones, Pittsburgh’s protection questions are very different from Buffalo’s, where the concern is a banged-up offense featuring multiple injured starters, including key wideout Curtis Samuel and both starting tackles in various stages of recovery. In cold, potentially wet conditions at open-air Acrisure Stadium, Buffalo’s more efficient rushing attack behind James Cook and a defense that has recently limited opposing passing yardage match up well against a Steelers secondary that has been leaky through the air, especially when Allen has historically produced solid numbers and the Bills have taken four of the last five in the series. Factor in Buffalo’s urgency after dropping to 7-4, Allen’s unbeaten record in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers’ thin defensive interior without Derrick Harmon, and Buffalo’s superior ceiling on both sides of the ball makes the Bills moneyline at -189 a play with solid win probability even if the price trims some value, which is why it earns a B+ grade instead of something higher. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:51am

The combination of late-November Pittsburgh weather, offensive line attrition on both sides, and a high-stakes playoff atmosphere points me toward the under 46 at -112, even in a matchup featuring Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers. Forecasts call for temperatures in the 30s to low 40s with the potential for rain and snow during the game window, conditions that typically depress explosive passing and encourage more conservative, clock-chewing game plans, especially for a Steelers offense trying to protect Rodgers’ healing wrist behind a line missing its starting left tackle. Buffalo’s attack has been explosive on paper, but the Bills are nursing injuries to multiple key pass-game pieces and offensive linemen, which showed up in an eight-sack meltdown in Houston and could again tilt them toward a heavier dose of James Cook on the ground rather than constant downfield shots. On the other side, while Pittsburgh has weapons, Buffalo’s defense has quietly held opponents under 23 points per game and matches up better against Rodgers through the air than against power running, which dovetails with a slower, grinding script. With both teams coming off losses and viewing this as a near-playoff environment, red-zone conservatism and a few stalled drives in the muck are enough to make the under the side for me here, though the quarterback talent keeps this at a B rather than an A-level confidence. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:51am

Against the spread, I’m leaning Bills -3 at -120, but with only a B- grade given the juice and how much respect Pittsburgh’s home field and pass rush still command. The Steelers are 4-2 at Acrisure and won’t shy away from a slugfest in the cold, yet their protection is compromised without Broderick Jones and they face a Buffalo front that, while not dominant, is healthier than Pittsburgh’s offensive line and should be able to squeeze Rodgers just enough to force a couple of stalled drives or a turnover. Offensively, Buffalo’s statistical edge is clear in both scoring and total offense, and Allen has been efficient historically against this defense while the Steelers’ secondary has allowed significant passing yardage; that said, the Bills’ own injury issues at receiver, tight end and tackle plus their 2-3 road mark introduce volatility and leave the back door open if this turns into a one-score grinder. With playoff urgency tilting slightly more toward the Bills, Allen’s strong series history, and Pittsburgh’s recent slide against quality opponents, I project Buffalo to win by more than a field goal slightly more often than not, but the weather and home-field wrinkles keep this from being more than a modest-value edge at -3. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 28/11/2025 11:51am