Sabres vs Penguins

Buffalo hits Pittsburgh having won four of its last five, while the Penguins limp in on a two-game skid that includes a 5-0 loss to Minnesota and an overtime defeat to Seattle, yet the broader picture still tilts this moneyline toward the home side. With Norris and Kulich sidelined, the Sabres lose two potential middle-six scoring pieces, whereas the Penguins are trending healthier, expecting Tristan Jarry and Bryan Rust back around a core that has already posted a +9 goal differential and a 5-3-2 home mark. Pittsburgh’s long-run dominance in this matchup (14-6-1 in its last 21 against Buffalo and 8-2 in its last 10 at home vs. the Sabres, often clearing three goals) contrasts with Buffalo’s 1-5-2 road record and heavy home/road split, and while Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch have burned the Pens recently — including a 7-3 Sabres win last March — the current version of Pittsburgh defends far better at five-on-five and can lean on an elite power play against a Sabres group still prone to lapses away from KeyBank Center. Laying the Penguins at -120 gives you the better defensive structure, the more reliable goaltending ceiling if Jarry is in, and a significant historical and venue edge, but Buffalo’s recent uptick and scoring depth keep this from elite status, so I grade Penguins moneyline at -120 as a B+ wager. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:39am

Given Buffalo’s four-wins-in-five surge and Pittsburgh’s two-game slide, you might expect fireworks, but recent scoring patterns and personnel point more toward a grind than a track meet at a 6.5 total. The Penguins have averaged only about 2.4 goals for and 2.6 against over their last 10, riding a top-five defensive profile and strong goaltending, while Buffalo’s hot run has been driven as much by Luukkonen and a tightening defensive game — holding Carolina to a single goal and limiting chances — as by explosive outings like the nine-spot against Chicago. Both sides are navigating injuries (Buffalo without Norris and Kulich, Pittsburgh still missing depth like Noel Acciari and Rickard Rakell), which compresses the effective scoring depth even if the headliners — Crosby, Malkin, Rust, Thompson, Tuch — are available, and the special-teams matchup is subtly under-friendly: Pittsburgh’s league-best power play is countered by a Sabres penalty kill posting elite underlying numbers, while Buffalo’s own power play lags in the high-teens percentage range. With the Penguins historically controlling this series at home but doing it via structured, lower-event hockey lately, and Buffalo still a different team away from Buffalo, the lean is that one of these offenses underperforms market expectations, making Under 6.5 at -120 a solid but not slam-dunk position, graded at B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:39am

The same form lines that justify a modest preference for Pittsburgh straight up also make Buffalo +1.5 on the puckline at -250 attractive in theory but price-sensitive in practice. The Sabres arrive with four wins in five and their first road win of the season finally banked in Detroit, while the Penguins are reeling from consecutive losses and have played in some lopsided scripts recently, yet their season-long resume still points to a team more often involved in tight games than multi-goal blowouts, as reflected in a 10-6-5 record and relatively slim +9 differential. With Buffalo’s offense humming — Thompson on a notable goal streak, Tuch and Quinn driving recent multi-point nights — even the absence of Norris and Kulich hasn’t stopped them from pushing back when trailing, and they just hung seven on these Penguins in March, showing they can keep things competitive or better when the matchup tilts their way. On the other side, a healthier Pittsburgh blue line and an expected Jarry/Rust return support the idea of a narrow home win more than a rout, but you’re paying serious juice to capture that extra goal, so while the statistical profile of both clubs (road struggles for Buffalo, one-goal tendencies and strong five-on-five defense for Pittsburgh) suggests Sabres +1.5 will cash more often than not, the limited payout drags it down to a C+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/11/2025 09:39am