Sabres vs Senators

With Buffalo riding a six-game winning streak and Ottawa on a four-game heater, this matchup feels like a true form clash, but the Senators’ combination of home-ice advantage and slightly better underlying season profile still nudges the moneyline value toward the favorite. Ottawa has been strong at Canadian Tire Centre while Buffalo remains below .500 on the road, and the Sens’ top offensive core of Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk, and Drake Batherson is humming, helped by a power play that has been among the league’s most efficient, versus a Sabres team allowing north of three goals per game despite its recent surge. Injury-wise, Buffalo is still without Jason Zucker and Conor Timmins and has Colten Ellis sidelined, while Ottawa misses Shane Pinto and Lars Eller but otherwise has its main scoring horses intact, a trade-off that favors the deeper Senators forward group. Recent head-to-head trends at the player level also tilt slightly Ottawa’s way, with Tkachuk and Stützle historically productive against Buffalo, whereas Tage Thompson has done most of his recent damage against other Atlantic opponents, leaving Ottawa’s ace goaltender Linus Ullmark to lean on solid home splits behind a confident group. I grade Senators -155 as a B+ play: the win probability looks clearly above implied, but the price is rich enough that it falls just short of elite value and should be sized accordingly in a diversified card. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 23/12/2025 09:33am

Given that both teams enter hot – Buffalo on six straight wins and Ottawa lighting up the scoreboard during its own four-game run – the offensive trajectory on each side points toward goals rather than a grind, especially with the Senators’ elite power play facing a Sabres group that’s winning with scoring more than suppression. Ottawa sits above three goals for and around three against per night with a lethal first unit featuring Stützle, Tkachuk, and David Perron, while Buffalo’s top line driven by Thompson and supported by Rasmus Dahlin from the back end has pushed its goals-per-game over three during this streak, even as its defensive numbers remain middling. Special teams are a key variable: Ottawa’s power play is top-tier but its penalty kill sits dead last in the league region, which is a recipe for both sides to cash on the man advantage and inflate total chances beyond what a typical 6.5 would expect. Trend-wise, Ottawa has been an over team overall and at home, and Buffalo’s road totals skew higher than at KeyBank Center, making the plus-priced Over 6.5 at 105 attractive in a spot where both clubs lean into pace and skill rather than trench defense. I grade Over 6.5 (105) as a solid B: the game script, special-teams matchup, and recent form all support a high-event night, though any hot performance from Ullmark or a Sabres netminder keeps it just shy of A-range confidence. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 23/12/2025 09:33am

With both teams entering on multi-game winning streaks and the market already leaning heavily toward Ottawa on the moneyline, the puckline calculus shifts toward Buffalo, where grabbing +1.5 comes at a steep -205 but is supported by the Sabres’ recent surge and Ottawa’s tendency to play tighter versus quality opponents. The injuries shave a bit of ceiling off Buffalo’s lineup – Zucker and Timmins in particular – yet their current forward rotation still features a dangerous Thompson-led top six plus emerging contributors like Zach Benson and Alex Tuch, enough to trade punches with a Senators group whose scoring is concentrated around Stützle, Tkachuk, and a resurgent Perron, but which remains thin down the middle without Pinto and Eller. Ottawa’s profile (strong offense, shaky penalty kill, goaltending that has stabilized but not dominated even with Ullmark’s recent shutout) often leads to high-event games that finish within one goal when the opponent has legitimate top-end talent, and Buffalo’s road underdog splits plus recent form suggest they are more likely to “lose close” than get run out of the building in this spot. Given the heavy juice, however, the value side of the equation lags the raw win probability on the puckline, so I grade Sabres +1.5 (-205) as a C+: a reasonable way to leverage Buffalo’s momentum if you insist on a spread angle, but inferior to simply backing Ottawa on the moneyline or the game to sail over the total. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 23/12/2025 09:33am