Buffalo Sabres vs New York Islanders

Buffalo’s recent surge — 17-3-1 in its last 21, including a current two-game win streak — contrasts sharply with an Islanders team that just finished a 3-3-1 road trip capped by a 4-1 loss in Seattle, and that situational form tilt is a major reason to lean toward the Sabres at -105 on the moneyline. While New York gets a huge boost with Bo Horvat expected back after missing nine games, the Isles are still missing multiple defensive regulars Ryan Pulock, Alexander Romanov and veteran goalie Semyon Varlamov, leaving their blue line and crease thinner than Buffalo’s relatively concentrated injury list up front that notably includes Josh Norris and depth centers Josh Dunne and Justin Danforth. Thompson has points in three of his last four against the Islanders, and the Sabres already edged New York 3-2 in a shootout in the first meeting, suggesting Buffalo’s top-end skill has been able to break through this matchup even when games stay tight. With both sides largely icing their core 2025-26 rosters as listed on ESPN — Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power for Buffalo; Mathew Barzal, Horvat and Anthony Duclair for New York — the difference comes down to current momentum and defensive health. Buffalo’s road mark 12-11-2 isn’t dominant, but paired with elite recent form and a more intact blue line against an Isles group that’s strong at home 14-8-2 yet banged up, the Sabres at a near coin-flip price offer enough edge to justify a B-grade recommendation on the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/01/2026 09:20

With Buffalo averaging 3.28 goals per game and allowing 3.15, plus ranking top six on the penalty kill 83.2% but also generating a league-high seven shorthanded goals, this is a Sabres team that tends to play high-event hockey in both directions, a dynamic that pairs intriguingly with an Islanders offense regaining its leading goal-scorer in Horvat and riding a torrid finishing stretch from Duclair eight goals in his last eight games. Thompson is tied for fifth in the NHL with 26 goals and has racked up 15 points this month, while Josh Doan’s breakout 35 points in 50 games deepens Buffalo’s scoring beyond the top line; on the other side, Barzal, Horvat and rising blueliner Matthew Schaefer headline an Isles core that has gone 19-2-3 when scoring at least three goals, mirroring Buffalo’s 26-4-4 mark when it hits that threshold. New York’s defensive injuries Pulock, Romanov and reliance on Ilya Sorokin and/or David Rittich to soak up extra workload create additional volatility in their own end, especially against a Sabres group that has been one of the league’s hottest since early December. Even acknowledging the quality in goal on both sides — Sorokin’s track record for New York and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s solid play for Buffalo — the combination of recent form, returning offensive firepower and playoff-race intensity nudges this matchup toward a 3-3-or-better script more often than not, making Over 6 at -125 a slight value despite the juice and worthy of a B- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/01/2026 09:20

Although the recommendation is Buffalo on the moneyline, the matchup profile still favors New York on the puckline at +1.5, given how frequently these teams play single-goal games and how tightly bunched they are in the Eastern standings at 28-17-5 and 27-18-5, respectively. espn.com The first meeting finished 3-2 in a shootout for Buffalo, and the Islanders just completed a seven-game trip with four of the contests decided by a single goal, while going a respectable 5-3-1 without Horvat — evidence that, even when shorthanded, they tend to hang around on most nights. nhl.com Horvat’s expected return, combined with the sustained production of Barzal, Schaefer and Duclair, raises New York’s offensive floor in front of a home crowd where the Isles are 14-8-2, making it less likely they’re blown out even against a Sabres side that has been one of the league’s hottest teams over the past six weeks. nhl.com Buffalo’s strong push in the playoff race and its streaky scoring led by Thompson and Doan suggest it can eke out another narrow win, but with the Islanders’ structure, goaltending tandem of Sorokin/Rittich, and proven resilience while banged up on defense, backing New York to stay within a goal at -200 earns a B+ grade for its high probability, even if the price is rich. nhl.com Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/01/2026 09:20