Bills vs Broncos

Josh Allen leads a Bills team that has won five of its last six into Denver, but the top-seeded Broncos counter with a 9-1 stretch over their last ten and a two-game winning streak plus the edge of playing their first home playoff game in a decade at 5,000 feet, where Buffalo has been preparing all week in an altitude chamber just to simulate the conditions. Denver’s profile is built on a ferocious pass rush that piled up league-leading sack numbers and converts pressure into sacks at an elite rate, a nasty combination against a Bills offensive line that has been shaky in protection, while Josh Allen’s receiving corps is down multiple key wideouts (including Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers) and the defense is missing veteran safety Jordan Poyer and rookie corner Maxwell Hairston, stretching both the coverage and explosive-play ceiling on the road. The weather forecast calls for mid-40s to low-50s at kickoff with light winds but still the coldest home game Denver has played this year, conditions that shouldn’t bother a cold-weather Bills team but, paired with the thin air, accentuate the Broncos’ conditioning and home-field advantage. Even with Buffalo’s past dominance in this matchup—including last year’s 31-7 playoff blowout and Allen’s monster 48-19 outing in his previous trip to Mile High—the current version of this game leans toward Denver’s healthier front seven and deeper offensive skill group around Bo Nix, especially if James Cook and Dalton Kincaid are forced to carry a heavier share of the load against a defense that smothers explosives and wins on third down. With the AFC Championship Game on the line and the market already shading slightly toward the home side, backing the Broncos moneyline at -115 grades out as a B: a solid but not slam-dunk edge that leans on Denver’s pass rush, altitude advantage, and Buffalo’s injury attrition more than pure price misalignment. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 11:30 ([oddsindex.com](https://oddsindex.com/sports/nfl/game-previews/buf-vs-den-preview-divisional-17-jan-2026))

This total bakes in plenty of respect for Josh Allen’s ceiling, but the matchup and context quietly point toward a more compressed, grind-it-out game script that favors the Under 46. Denver’s defense has been elite at limiting explosive passes, pairing a top-tier sack rate with a coverage unit that forces offenses to string together long drives, and that is exactly the profile that can bog down a Bills attack now short on proven outside receivers and leaning more on James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, and Allen’s legs to move the chains. On the other side, Buffalo brings the league’s top pass defense by yardage but a run unit that has bled efficiency all year, which sets up the Broncos to lean on RJ Harvey, Bo Nix’s designed runs, and a methodical, run-heavy plan at home rather than a tempo-driven shootout—especially given that Denver’s own recent home wins over the Chargers and Chiefs have landed in the low 20s for the Broncos and teens for opponents. The weather outlook—temps around 50 degrees at kickoff with minimal wind and only a small chance of precipitation—removes true weather chaos from the equation but, combined with the expected drop into the 30s by game’s end and the altitude fatigue factor, further nudges both staffs toward conservative, clock-chewing decisions in high-leverage spots with a trip to the AFC title game on the line. With Denver’s defense designed to erase quick strikes and both teams set up to attack on the ground as much as through the air, Under 46 at -110 earns a B+ grade for blending matchup-driven value with playoff-game variance that naturally leans lower scoring. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 11:30 ([sports.betmgm.com](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/broncos-bills-weather-forecast-temperature-rain-wind-jan-17-bm25/?utm_source=openai))

With the spread sitting at Denver -1, bettors are essentially choosing a side in what amounts to a moneyline decision, and the same factors that tilt the straight-up outcome toward the Broncos also nudge me onto their side of the number—albeit with slightly less conviction given the razor-thin margin. Denver’s 14-3 record and 9-1 tear over its last ten, combined with a suffocating pass rush and a defense that ranks near the top of the league in third-down stops, gives them a structural edge against a Bills offense traveling on a short week, short-handed at wide receiver, and facing a secondary that rarely surrenders chunk gains, making it harder for Buffalo to steal cheap points if their red-zone trips are limited. Buffalo’s own defensive injuries on the back end, plus interior losses up front, raise the probability that Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, and RJ Harvey can generate just enough balance to complement a defense that thrives in high-leverage downs, particularly once altitude and late-game fatigue kick in. While Josh Allen’s track record against Denver and the Bills’ playoff experience keep blowout scenarios in check—and explain why Denver’s against-the-spread record has lagged behind its straight-up success—the combination of current form, home-field altitude, and injury distribution between the two rosters makes a Broncos win by at least a field goal more likely than not. That profile earns Denver -1 at -110 a B- grade: aligned with our moneyline lean but with extra game-script volatility and push risk that slightly reduce the overall value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/01/2026 11:30 ([oddsindex.com](https://oddsindex.com/sports/nfl/game-previews/buf-vs-den-preview-divisional-17-jan-2026))