Bruins vs Blues Betting Preview & Picks

Pavel Zacha and the Bruins just lit up St. Louis for two goals in last week’s 5-2 win, part of a stretch that has Boston on a 2-0-0 run and back to 17-13-0 with a top-10 power play and penalty kill driving a 3.13 goals-for and 3.13 goals-against profile. The Blues counter with home ice and a mini-surge, having grabbed back-to-back road wins in Ottawa and Montreal and points in 12 of their last 16 (7-4-5), but they’re still underwater at 2.57 goals for and 3.40 against and remain 11-12-7 overall. St. Louis’ injury list matters here: Jordan Kyrou is day-to-day with a lower-body issue, while Jimmy Snuggerud and Alexey Toropchenko are both sidelined, trimming already thin wing depth, whereas Boston’s biggest absence is Charlie McAvoy (facial surgery, practicing but still without a firm return date) and potentially David Pastrnak, who is traveling and could rejoin soon but is more of a wildcard than a lock for this game. Head-to-head, Boston has repeatedly solved Jordan Binnington—dropping five on him on December 4 and owning multiple recent comeback wins in this matchup, including Pastrnak’s third-period game-winner in St. Louis last season—while Binnington’s current 3.29 GAA and .875 save percentage suggest continued volatility in behind a defense missing key pieces like Torey Krug. With Boston’s roster depth confirmed, special teams edge, and recent form against this opponent, I project the Bruins as slightly more likely than the market implies to grab another win, making Boston +122 a modest value play at a B+ grade on confidence and reward. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/12/2025 09:39am

Boston’s offensive ceiling and structural cracks on both blue lines push me toward goals in this rematch, especially with the total still sitting at 5.5. The Bruins are averaging 3.13 goals per game with a 25.0 percent power play and 83.0 percent penalty kill, facing a Blues team that allows 3.40 goals per night and kills penalties at just 77.3 percent—an uncomfortable combo against Boston’s heavily PP-driven scoring. St. Louis’ raw scoring profile (2.57 goals per game) undersells their recent uptick: they just hung six total goals across wins over Ottawa and Montreal behind Brayden Schenn, Dylan Holloway and Jake Neighbours, and even with Kyrou and depth wingers out, their top nine is still capable of exploiting a Bruins defense missing its alpha in McAvoy. The recent series history is quietly noisy on the scoreboard too: Boston’s 5-2 win last Thursday landed on seven goals, and the Blues’ prior meeting with the Bruins in St. Louis finished 3-2, with Pastrnak again a central figure in turning defensive-zone breakdowns into late offense. Factor in Binnington’s sub-.880 save percentage, the likelihood that Boston starts Joonas Korpisalo or Jeremy Swayman on the road, and the Blues’ tendency to trade chances when chasing, and this projects closer to a six-goal median than the market implies, so I lean Over 5.5 at -110 with a solid-but-not-elite B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/12/2025 09:39am

Given how often this matchup tilts into tight, late-game territory, I prefer taking the cushion with Boston on the puckline rather than laying heavy juice with the home favorite. The Blues are only 11-12-7 but they’ve banked points in 12 of their last 16 (7-4-5), a record built on a string of one-goal and overtime results, and they’ve taken points in five of their last six home dates against Boston at Enterprise Center, even when the Bruins ultimately find a way to steal it late. With St. Louis missing multiple wingers (Kyrou day-to-day, Snuggerud on IR, Toropchenko week-to-week) and leaning heavily on Brayden Schenn, Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich and Holloway for offense, their path to success likely runs through lower-event, grind-it-out hockey in front of Binnington, whose career mark against Boston (2-3-2) and recent five-goal outing suggest he’s more likely to keep this close than completely shut it down. On the other side, Boston’s confirmed roster depth—Geekie, Zacha, Lindholm, Arvidsson and a mobile defense led by Lohrei and Lindholm—has already shown it can generate against this structure even without a fully healthy Pastrnak or McAvoy, which reinforces the idea of a one-goal game in either direction. Because -210 is a steep price that eats into the edge despite a very high hit probability, Bruins +1.5 on the puckline lands at a C+ grade: a safer outcome profile, but limited long-term value compared with the moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/12/2025 09:39am