Celtics vs Kings

Boston’s Jaylen Brown has been on a torrid scoring run while carrying a Tatum-less Celtics group to wins in four of their last five, including high-output road performances in Indiana and Utah that underline how potent this offense remains even without its franchise wing. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/basketball/jaylen-brown-celtics-extend-hot-streaks-beat-pacers-again--flm-2025-12-27/?utm_source=openai)) With Jayson Tatum still sidelined by the Achilles injury that has kept him out all season and frontcourt depth thinned by Chris Boucher’s absence, Boston is hardly at full strength, but Sacramento is in even worse shape, missing both Domantas Sabonis (knee) and Zach LaVine (ankle), stripping them of their interior hub and a major perimeter scorer. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/45131758/jayson-tatum-injury-next-star-boston-celtics-future?utm_source=openai)) DeMar DeRozan has historically produced well against Boston (over 22 points and 9 assists per game in last season’s meetings), and the Kings did beat the Celtics twice last year behind massive Sabonis rebounding lines, but with those stars unavailable and Sacramento riding a 2–6 stretch featuring multiple blowout losses, Boston’s talent and current form justify eating the steep -435 moneyline despite the limited upside. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/roster/_/name/sac/sort/age/sacramento-kings)) I’m backing Boston on the moneyline at -435 and grading it an A- pick for safety but only moderate monetary value if it cashes. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 10:43

Sacramento’s offense without Sabonis orchestrating from the high post and LaVine’s on-ball shot creation has been sputtering, with recent outputs of 93, 101 and 90 points as the Kings lean heavily on DeRozan’s slower-paced midrange game, Keon Ellis spot-up shooting and veteran guards like Russell Westbrook to manufacture looks. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/injuries)) On the other side, Boston’s attack is still dangerous with Brown, Anfernee Simons and a deep shooting corps, but their last five have produced a mix of controlled wins in the low 200s and just a couple of true track meets, suggesting they don’t necessarily need to push pace hard against an undermanned opponent. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/roster/_/name/bos/sort/weight/bostonceltics)) Even when both Sabonis and DeRozan were available last season, one of these matchups landed at 211 total points in a 114–97 Kings win, and with Sacramento’s offensive ceiling clearly lower now while Boston is a double-digit road favorite, a Celtics win in the 115–105 neighborhood feels more likely than a true shootout above 227.5. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/43364641?utm_source=openai)) I’m leaning Under 227.5 at -109 and giving it a B grade: reasonable edge given the injuries and recent scoring profiles, but with enough blowout/garbage-time variance to keep it shy of elite confidence. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 10:43

The Kings have dropped two straight by 24 and 41 points as their defense has cratered without Sabonis anchoring the glass and their offense has devolved into DeRozan isolations, role-player threes and too many empty trips, a bad recipe against a Boston team that has won three of its last four by double digits even with Tatum still out. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/injuries?utm_source=openai)) Brown’s current scoring heater and the emergence of secondary creators like Payton Pritchard and Derrick White have allowed the Celtics to sustain big runs on the road, and while DeRozan has historically hurt Boston with his playmaking in this matchup, the prior Kings cover-and-upset script leaned heavily on Sabonis’ historic 23-point, 28-rebound demolition of the Celtics’ interior—a dynamic that simply isn’t available with him sidelined. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/roster/_/name/bos/sort/weight/bostonceltics)) Given Sacramento’s thin frontcourt, recent blowout profile and lack of reliable halfcourt counters to Boston’s length on the perimeter, I’m willing to lay the -9.5 with the Celtics at -114 and grade it a B+ pick: better value than the moneyline with a strong chance Boston’s talent gap produces a comfortable double-digit win, but still vulnerable to late-game bench units and backdoor cover risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 10:43