Boston vs Detroit

David Pastrnak being ruled out for this one is massive, but the way Boston has handled adversity lately makes the plus-money road side intriguing against a Detroit group riding a four-game losing streak and leaking goals at nearly 3.5 per night with a -13 differential. With Boston having just taken the first leg of this home-and-home 3-2 in a shootout behind Jeremy Swayman’s strong play, and Morgan Geekie continuing his breakout as the team’s leading goal scorer, the Bruins’ current form looks better than their modest negative goal differential suggests, especially compared to a Red Wings team that has dropped six of its last eight and is over-reliant on Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat to carry the offense. ESPN’s current rosters confirm that outside of Pastrnak and several injured Boston defensemen, both forward groups are largely intact, and if Swayman starts again opposite Cam Talbot, Boston’s edge in recent goaltending performance plus a still-dangerous power play gives the underdog enough paths to a win to justify backing the Bruins at +170 despite Detroit’s home-ice advantage and desperation to snap the skid; I’d grade this bet a B for the combination of fair upset chance and attractive return if it hits. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:26am

With the Red Wings struggling to a four-game slide in which they’ve scored just three goals in each of their last two outings while conceding six multiple times, and the Bruins now missing their top producer Pastrnak on top of blue line injuries to Charlie McAvoy and Henri Jokiharju, this matchup profiles as another tight, under-style game like the 3-2 and 3-2 contests these teams have already played in the past calendar year. Detroit’s season-long numbers show sub-3.0 goals per game and mediocre special teams, while Boston’s recent surge has been driven more by Swayman’s work (team-leading 2.6-ish GAA) and opportunistic depth scoring from Geekie and Elias Lindholm than by high shot volume, which matters against Cam Talbot and a Red Wings defense that, despite some ugly box scores, tends to keep games relatively low-event at five-on-five in this building. Given both teams’ negative goal differentials, Detroit’s current lack of confidence, and the likelihood that Boston leans into a conservative road game plan without Pastrnak to drive offense, I prefer the Under 5.5 at -105 and would grade it a B+, as the total aligns well with recent head-to-head results, underlying scoring rates, and the current injury landscape while still offering a reasonable price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:26am

Given that both recent meetings between these teams have finished 3-2 and Detroit comes in on a four-game losing streak with a negative goal differential, taking Boston on the puckline at +1.5 feels like the safer way to fade the Red Wings’ current form while respecting home ice and the chance they squeak out a one-goal win. Even without Pastrnak and with McAvoy still sidelined, Boston’s confirmed roster still features a capable top four on defense and strong goaltending from Swayman, who has just backstopped wins while facing heavy volume, and their penalty kill has already shown it can blank Detroit’s power play over a full game in this very matchup. On the other side, the Red Wings’ attack is concentrated in Larkin, DeBrincat, and Lucas Raymond, and while that trio has had some success against Boston historically, Detroit’s broader issues in suppressing chances and closing out games during this skid increase the likelihood that the Bruins can at least keep it within a goal, especially with depth scorers like Geekie and J.T. Compher (for Detroit) often trading blows rather than producing lopsided scores. Laying -160 on +1.5 isn’t cheap, but with Boston’s recent trend toward one-goal grinders and Detroit’s inability to pull away even in wins, I’d grade this puckline play a B: solid probability of cashing with modest but not elite value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:26am