Nets vs Pelicans

Brooklyn’s four-game skid hides the fact that they’ve already handled New Orleans by 18 earlier this season, and now face a Pelicans team that has dropped 11 of its last 12 despite a brief Zion-led outburst to end a nine-game losing streak. With Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado still sidelined and Dejounte Murray yet to debut, New Orleans remains thin on perimeter defense and creation, while the Nets bring a healthier core featuring Michael Porter Jr. — who has historically torched the Pelicans and continues to lead Brooklyn in scoring — and a defense that, while inconsistent, is less porous than New Orleans’ bottom-tier unit. Add in the Pelicans’ L2 skid after that Wizards blowout and the psychological weight of sitting near the West’s basement past the halfway mark, and the market-favorite Nets at -133 look like the side with a slightly higher true win probability than the implied mid-50s, offering modest but respectable value; I grade this a B pick for likelihood and solid, if unspectacular, monetary return on a favorite price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/01/2026 09:45

New Orleans’ recent scores — routinely flirting with or blasting past the 230 mark thanks to a 114.9 team scoring average, bottom-tier defense, and Zion Williamson’s relentless rim pressure — suggest another high-possession game, especially against a Nets team that has allowed 113+ in three of its last four and leans heavily on Porter’s shotmaking rather than grinding half-court offense. The Pelicans’ current injuries remove two of their best defenders (Jones on the wing and Alvarado at the point of attack), and their desperation to stay faintly in the play-in conversation should keep Zion, Trey Murphy III, and Jordan Poole aggressively hunting offense, which in turn forces Brooklyn to keep pace. While the Nets’ season-long 108.7 points per game would point slightly under the 228.5 total, matchup-specific factors — recent defensive collapses on both sides, Zion’s 20+ point per game history versus Brooklyn, and Porter’s long track record of big nights against New Orleans — tilt this toward a track meet more than a rock fight, making Over 228.5 at -110 a B- pick: decent edge but still volatile given both teams’ inconsistency and reliance on jump shooting around their stars. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/01/2026 09:45

Michael Porter Jr.’s history of efficient 20+ point outings against the Pelicans, combined with Brooklyn’s earlier 119-101 win in this matchup and New Orleans’ current L2 slide after that short-lived bounce-back against Washington, nudges me toward laying the -2.5 despite the Nets arriving on a four-game losing streak. Zion’s strong career production versus Brooklyn and the Pelicans’ respectable 114.9 offensive output are reasons to be cautious, but the absence of Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado, plus Dejounte Murray’s ongoing injury absence, leaves New Orleans short on two-way guards and wings to bother Porter and contain Brooklyn’s pick-and-roll game late. Given both teams’ records around the midway point and the Nets’ slightly clearer, if still slim, path toward play-in relevance, I expect Brooklyn to press this spot harder and convert their moneyline edge into a multi-possession win often enough to justify the -2.5 at -110, though the risk of a Zion-driven tight finish keeps this at a C+ grade for probability and only marginally better value than the safer moneyline. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/01/2026 09:45