NBA

Nets vs Mavericks

Depleted lineups collide, but Dallas still owns the home-edge script.

Brooklyn Nets

Nets (11-24) VS Mavericks (14-25)

January 12, 2026 | 8:30 PM ET | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

Dallas Mavericks
Moneyline Pick - Dallas Mavericks (-182): A-
Dallas leans on Cooper Flagg’s emerging star turn and a respectable 10-10 home mark to steady the ship against a Nets group riding a three-game skid and coming in on the second night of a road back-to-back from Memphis. With Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II and Dante Exum all out, the Mavericks are thinner but still have more on-ball creation and shooting depth (Flagg, Klay Thompson, D’Angelo Russell) than a Nets team missing multiple wings and forwards like Haywood Highsmith, Michael Porter Jr., Drake Powell and Ziaire Williams, which hurts their already shaky offense and perimeter defense. Dallas already handled Brooklyn 119-111 in their first meeting, and while the Mavs’ own two-game losing streak and banged-up frontcourt add variance, home-court, rest advantage, and superior high-end talent make the Mavericks moneyline a solid value at this price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/01/2026 08:35
Over/Under Pick - Over 221.5, (-110): B
Brooklyn’s defense, allowing roughly 114 points per game, now has to deal with a Dallas offense that still scores about 113 a night and leans heavily on Flagg’s on-ball creation plus floor-spacers like Klay Thompson and P.J. Washington (if he’s able to go), all while the Nets are short several rotation wings and likely dealing with tired legs on a back-to-back. The Mavericks’ own issues guarding anyone without Davis, Lively and Exum — and their 117-plus defensive points allowed over the last 10 — give shooters like Michael Porter Jr., Noah Clowney and Egor Demin room to punish a defense that’s also struggling in transition. Their prior 119-111 matchup already got to 230, and although missing Davis trims some easy paint scoring, the combination of poor rim protection, shaky perimeter defense, and both teams’ recent scoring/allowing trends points slightly toward another game in the low-to-mid 220s, making the Over 221.5 a modest value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/01/2026 08:35
Spread Pick - Dallas Mavericks, -3.5 (-118): B-
Cooper Flagg and the Mavericks laying just 3.5 at home against a Nets team that’s 6-10 on the road, on a back-to-back, and missing multiple forwards is appealing, especially given Dallas’ 10-10 home record and their earlier eight-point win in this matchup. The concern is whether a Mavs core without Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively — plus several rotation pieces on the injury report — can consistently create separation if Brooklyn’s half-court offense, driven by Michael Porter Jr., Cam Thomas and Egor Demin’s shooting, stays efficient. Still, with the Nets on a three-game slide, thin on wings to check Flagg and Klay, and likely to wear down late after the Memphis trip, Dallas has enough structural edges (rest, home floor, remaining playmaking depth) to justify a small play against the number, though the injury volatility keeps this closer to a B- than a higher-grade conviction. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/01/2026 08:35
Share this post

Get the best odds on this prediction

Use our Live Odds Tool to get the best price on your favourite picks