Ravens vs Steelers

The Baltimore Ravens roll into Acrisure off a 41-24 steamrolling of Green Bay powered by Derrick Henry’s 216 yards and four scores, while the Pittsburgh Steelers just had a three-game surge snapped in an ugly 13-6 loss at Cleveland that exposed how thin their offense is without DK Metcalf and Darnell Washington and with T.J. Watt still working back from a punctured lung. With Lamar Jackson practicing fully and confirming he’ll go after missing last week, Baltimore gets its most dynamic piece back for a winner-take-all AFC North finale in which the loser is done for the year, but they can still lean on Henry and a physical line if Jackson’s back flares up again. Aaron Rodgers has historically handled the Ravens well, yet this version of Pittsburgh just mustered two field goals against a 4-12 Browns team and now faces a Ravens front capable of loading the box against a shorthanded receiver room, especially if Watt isn’t close to full strength to flip the script with splash plays. In what projects as a frigid low-20s, dry night on natural grass, the conditions skew toward Baltimore’s run-heavy, ball-control approach and away from a 42-year-old quarterback trying to push the ball through the cold, which tilts the calculus toward simply backing the deeper, healthier favorite to get out with a division-clinching win even at a steep price. I’m on the Ravens moneyline at -200 with a B grade: solid edge in matchup and form, but late-season volatility in a heated rivalry and the juice on a road favorite cap the value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 12:00([baltimoreravens.com](https://www.baltimoreravens.com/schedule/))

Total 41 feels a tick high for a January Ravens-Steelers game with a division title at stake, especially given how Pittsburgh just went touchdown-less in Cleveland and now enters another defensive slugfest in temperatures expected to hover in the low 20s with no real precipitation to soften the field. Lamar Jackson’s return raises Baltimore’s offensive ceiling, but his history against the Steelers is littered with sacks and picks, and this Ravens version is built around Henry and a punishing ground game that just dominated time of possession in Green Bay—exactly the kind of script that bleeds clock and shortens the game. On the other side, Rodgers is coming off a 168-yard, zero-touchdown outing behind a banged-up line and diminished weapon set, and facing a Ravens defense that, while leaky at times, can still heat him up enough to force checkdowns and stalled drives in the cold. Even if Watt suits up, you’re still looking at both offenses incentivized to protect the ball in a de facto playoff atmosphere, making red-zone trips precious and field goals more common than explosives as bodies tighten up on the frozen turf. With all that, I see a path to something like 20-17 or 23-17 more often than a track meet, so I’m playing Under 41 at -110 with a B+ grade: slightly better confidence and value than the side thanks to the matchup, weather, and rivalry tendencies all pointing toward a grind. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 12:00([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/sports/nfl/browns-play-spoiler-steelers-dont-score-td-loss--flm-2025-12-28/?utm_source=openai))

While I like Baltimore to escape with the division, grabbing the Steelers at +3.5 in their own building is my preferred spread angle in a rivalry that already produced a 27-22 Pittsburgh win in Baltimore earlier this season and rarely offers clean blowouts either way. The Ravens’ offense is peaking behind Henry and a healthier Jackson, but this Steelers defense has seen that look repeatedly—including holding Henry under 100 yards in their last regular-season meeting—and can still muddy things with pressure if Watt is active even in a limited role, especially against a Ravens line also managing dings to Roquan Smith and others on the defensive side. With Metcalf suspended and Washington sidelined, Pittsburgh will likely condense the passing tree around Pat Freiermuth and their backs, but Rodgers’ career success versus Baltimore’s schemes and a Ravens secondary that has sprung leaks late in the year are enough to keep them trading field goals at home rather than getting run off the field. Add in the brutal cold, which historically compresses scoring and makes every possession and special teams snap more volatile, and the hook above the key number of 3 becomes crucial protection in a game that sets up as a classic 20-17 or 23-20-type finish either way. I’ll take Steelers +3.5 at -115 with a B grade: strong number in a low-total, high-intensity matchup, but still some downside if Henry again takes over and Baltimore’s physicality finally breaks this one open late. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 12:00([baltimoreravens.com](https://www.baltimoreravens.com/schedule/))