Ravens vs Packers

Jordan Love’s uncertain status hangs over Green Bay, but with the Packers back at Lambeau after a two-game road skid that followed a four-game win streak and facing a Ravens team that has dropped three of its last four, I still lean toward laying the juice on the Packers moneyline at -220. Baltimore is likely turning to Tyler Huntley with Lamar Jackson listed as doubtful and the Ravens’ scoring historically falling off a cliff when Jackson sits, while Green Bay should have either a cleared Love or Malik Willis available against a pass defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in yards allowed and has given up multiple scores to a long list of opposing quarterbacks this year. The cold, potentially snowy, windy forecast at an outdoor Lambeau Field sets up for a physical game where Josh Jacobs and a top-10 Packers defense in both yards and points allowed can control the script against a Ravens offense that just saw Derrick Henry run wild but still managed only 24 points and another late-game collapse. With the Packers already having clinched a playoff berth but still playing for seeding, and the Ravens in must-win mode but far from full strength on the road, I’m comfortable backing Green Bay simply to win the game even if the price isn’t cheap. Pick: Packers -220 on the moneyline, Grade: B+ for strong win probability but modest value at this number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 11:31

The recent form and injury landscape both point me toward the under 40.5 at -115, with the Ravens stuck in a 1-3 slide and possibly rolling out Huntley instead of Jackson, while the Packers’ offense has cooled during a two-game losing streak and may be managing Love carefully as he works back through concussion protocol. Green Bay’s defense quietly profiles as a top-six unit in total yardage and top-10 in points allowed, and Baltimore’s defense has tightened considerably since its brutal start, combining for season-long marks in the low-20s in points allowed per game that already sit below this total even before baking in frigid Lambeau temperatures in the teens, wind around 10 mph with higher gusts, and a meaningful chance of snow. That weather should further tilt both teams toward their feature backs—Henry for Baltimore and Jacobs for Green Bay—slowing the pace and shortening the game, especially with the Ravens’ passing efficiency dipping sharply without Jackson and the Packers dealing with banged-up quarterbacks and receivers. Given the playoff context (Ravens essentially in an elimination spot, Packers already in and unlikely to expose their QB room more than necessary), a conservative, field-position battle with drives stalling in the red zone is the most likely script, and it’s hard to build a median scoring projection that gets comfortably above the low 40s. Pick: Under 40.5, Grade: A- thanks to both a strong schematic/weather case and the injury-driven downside to either aerial attack. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 11:31

Despite preferring Green Bay on the moneyline, the combination of current form, injuries, and game environment nudges me to the Ravens +4 at -110 against the spread, as the Packers limp in on a two-game losing streak with both Love (concussion/shoulder) and Willis (shoulder/illness) on the injury report, while Baltimore—though 1-3 in its last four—is playing with full desperation and can at least lean heavily on Derrick Henry and a resurgent defense. If Huntley does indeed start for the Ravens, their offensive ceiling is clearly lower than with Jackson, but his mobility and familiarity with Greg Roman-style run concepts mesh well with a ball-control approach in freezing, potentially snowy Lambeau conditions and give Baltimore a decent chance to trade body blows with Jacobs and a Packers offense that has seen its passing game muted since Love went down in Chicago. With Green Bay’s pass defense ranking top-10 but its rush defense “only” top-10 in yardage per game—and the Ravens’ ground game humming behind Henry’s top-five rushing production—this shapes up as a tight, lower-scoring contest where key numbers like 3 come into play and a late field goal either way could decide it. I still expect the Packers’ overall balance and home-field edge to prevail outright more often than not, but a hungry Ravens team that has already blown out Cincinnati on the road and tightened up defensively since midseason looks live to stay inside the number. Pick: Ravens +4, Grade: B given the solid cushion in a likely grind but real blowout risk if Love is cleared and the Baltimore offense sputters without Jackson. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 26/12/2025 11:31