Ravens vs Bengals

Baltimore enters on a two-game losing streak after winning five straight to claw back from a 1-5 start, whereas Cincinnati has dropped eight of its last ten following a 2-0 opening, signaling a team that still can’t close games even after getting Joe Burrow back under center. With Tee Higgins in concussion protocol and top edge rusher Trey Hendrickson on injured reserve, the Bengals are likely down a key perimeter weapon and their best pass rusher, while Lamar Jackson, though banged up at times this year, is practicing and expected to start alongside Derrick Henry behind a run-heavy offense. In what’s projected to be one of the coldest games ever in Cincinnati, with temps around the low teens and brutal wind chills, that physical Ravens ground game faces a Bengals defense ranked dead last in yards and points allowed and surrendering roughly 160 rushing yards per game, a glaring mismatch that should travel in sub-freezing conditions. Cincinnati did hammer Baltimore 32-14 on Thanksgiving behind Burrow’s 261 yards and a 39-minute time-of-possession edge, but that win was fueled by five Ravens turnovers, and Baltimore still gashed the Steelers for over 200 rushing yards last week, suggesting their run game is intact. With both teams clinging to playoff life but the matchup, injuries, and weather tilting toward the more physical side, I’m taking the Ravens moneyline at -140 and grading it a B: solid edge and decent win probability, but only middling payout limits it from a higher grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/12/2025 11:33. Sources: schedule, records, odds, and matchup context for Week 15. ([baltimoreravens.com](https://www.baltimoreravens.com/game-day/2025/reg-week15/ravens-at-bengals/matchup-history?utm_source=openai)) Sources: recent form, injuries, weather expectations, and Bengals defensive metrics. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Baltimore_Ravens_season?utm_source=openai))

Both teams come in trending more toward grind-it-out football than shootouts right now, with Baltimore’s offense stuck in a two-game skid after its five-win burst and Cincinnati’s attack alternating explosive stretches with late-game collapses during a 2-8 run over its last ten contests. Tee Higgins’ concussion issues and the Bengals’ banged-up defense (minus Hendrickson off the edge) sap some big-play juice from both sides, while Lamar Jackson is still working back toward full form after his hamstring absence, nudging the Ravens toward a heavier Derrick Henry-centric script. Forecasts calling for a high around 13 degrees and potentially one of the five coldest games ever at Paycor Stadium should suppress passing efficiency, deepen substitution benches on defense less than on offense, and make long kicks and timing routes harder to execute, all of which generally favor unders. Cincinnati’s defense is awful on paper but just held Baltimore to 14 points two weeks ago thanks to a turnover avalanche, and the Ravens’ own defense has been respectable against the run, suggesting more stalled red-zone drives than quick-strike fireworks in this divisional rematch. Given the combination of recent streaks, key injuries to Cincinnati’s playmakers, extreme cold, and a likely clock-chewing, run-heavy approach on both sides, I like Under 51.5 at -110 with a B+ grade: strong situational edge and decent value in a total that still sits in the low 50s despite truly nasty outdoor conditions. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/12/2025 11:33. Sources: prior Ravens-Bengals meeting, time-of-possession profile, and offensive trends. ([cbssports.com](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/gametracker/preview/NFL_20251214_BAL%40CIN/?utm_source=openai)) Sources: injuries, defensive rankings, and weather/temperature outlook for Cincinnati. ([bengals.com](https://www.bengals.com/news/bengals-ravens-injury-report-week-15-2025?utm_source=openai))

When you fold the current streaks into the matchup, you get a Ravens team that has lost two straight but is still 5-2 in its last seven facing a Bengals squad that’s 2-8 in its last ten and reeling from yet another blown lead in Buffalo, which makes laying less than a field goal with the road favorite more palatable. Cincinnati’s injury situation is particularly damaging to its ability to cover a short number: Higgins may either sit or play limited snaps after a second concussion in three weeks, while Hendrickson’s trip to IR removes their best pass rusher just as Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and a resurgent Ravens run game arrive at Paycor. In the forecasted deep freeze, Baltimore’s physical rushing identity is perfectly positioned to exploit a Bengals defense already allowing league-worst yardage and hemorrhaging rushing yards, while Joe Burrow—though excellent in the Thanksgiving win—is now operating behind a defense that can’t get late stops and an offense that has to work harder for explosive plays in this weather. Cincinnati’s earlier 32-14 win in Baltimore and Burrow’s strong history against the Ravens, along with Ja’Marr Chase’s “Ravenskiller” reputation, are reasons for caution, as is the Bengals’ home-field edge in an environment they know well, which is why I cap this as only a B- pick despite liking Baltimore -2.5 at -115 to grind out a one-score cover in a game with real, if slim, playoff implications for the visitors. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/12/2025 11:33. Sources: recent results, streaks, and playoff positioning for both teams. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Baltimore_Ravens_season?utm_source=openai)) Sources: injuries, matchup history, and defensive matchup edges relevant to the spread. ([bengals.com](https://www.bengals.com/news/bengals-ravens-injury-report-week-15-2025?utm_source=openai))